摘要
Abstract
The economic evaluation of exploration projects usually uses the decision tree method.For single reservoir trap,the probability distribution pattern of the resources in the trap can be simulated by probabilistic method.The paper proposes that cutting offthe simulated resources by the minimum size of the economic field,taking conceptual development plans and economic evaluation for the high,medium and low volumes of truncated resources,and calculates the expected monetary value of trap exploration by combining Swanson's rule.For traps with more efficient reservoirs,the decision tree is more complex.In particular,it is difficult for general evaluation methods to meet the requirements of projects that need to estimate the lower limit values of fiscal indicators.In this regard,it proposes the"Complexion Reduction"probability method for the economic evaluation of overseas multi-reservoirs trap project.Through probability statistics,the complex decision tree of multiple reservoirs can be simplified into a single reservoir decision tree,and the single reservoir trap evaluation method can be used to evaluate multi reservoir traps.It can not only evaluate the expected monetary value of multi-reservoir traps,but can also be applied to exploration projects that use fiscal terms factors as bidding or negotiation factors,and the new method will have wide application value in actual work.关键词
勘探项目/多层系圈闭/决策树/经济评价/概率法Key words
exploration project/multi-reservoirs trap/decision tree/economic evaluation/probability method分类
管理科学
