干旱区地理2024，Vol.47Issue(11)：1816-1827,12.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.175
昆仑山北坡高山流域洪水变化特征
Characteristics of flood change in alpine watershed on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains
摘要
Abstract
Flooding is one of the most devastating natural disasters,and under the influence of global warming,the magnitude and timing of floods in high-altitude mountain regions have experienced notable changes,signifi-cantly affecting human societies and ecosystems.This study employs the MissForest algorithm to impute daily discharge data for six mountain passes on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains,Xinjiang,China,analyz-ing trends in flood magnitude,timing,rise and recede durations for six source streams and mountain passes from 1961 to 2022,as well as the daily average annual maximum flood discharge.The key findings are as follows:(1)97%of the annual maximum 1-day flow(AMF)events occur during the summer season.The AMF at Wuluwati and Tongguziluoke stations shows an increasing trend,while Pishan,Qira,Nunumaimaitilangan,and Qiemo sta-tions exhibit a decreasing trend.Changes in AMF are statistically significant at all stations except Pishan and Wul-uwati.The spring maximum 1-day flow(AMFSp)at all stations shows an increasing trend,with the most pro-nounced increases at Wuluwati,Tongguziluoke,and Nunumaimaitilangan stations.Regarding flood timing,the annual maximum 1-day flow date(AMFD)at five stations(excluding Pishan)exhibits an insignificant trend to-ward earlier occurrences.For the spring maximum 1-day flow date(AMFDSp),none of the six stations show a significant trend toward earlier timing.(2)Concerning the rise time of flooding,Tongguziluoke and Qiemo sta-tions experienced an extension,while the other four stations showed a reduction.For the recede time of floods,Pishan and Qira stations have extended durations,whereas the other stations have shorter recede times,with no significant overall trend.The average daily discharge during the maximum flood has significantly increased at Pis-han Station,significantly decreased at Nunumaimaitilangan and Qiemo stations,and has shown no significant change at the other stations.These findings are crucial for improving hydrological and ecological management,flood mitigation,disaster reduction,regional water management,and disaster risk assessment in arid regions.关键词
MissForest/最大1日流量/洪水过程/昆仑山北坡Key words
MissForest/maximum 1-day flow/flood process/northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains引用本文复制引用
仇泽炜,方功焕,陈亚宁,朱成刚,梁文婷,邸彦峰,吕浩东..昆仑山北坡高山流域洪水变化特征[J].干旱区地理,2024,47(11):1816-1827,12.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区面上项目(2022D01A348) （2022D01A348）
第三次新疆科学考察-昆仑山北坡水资源开发潜力及利用途径科学考察项目(2021xjkk0100)资助 （2021xjkk0100）
