干旱区地理2024，Vol.47Issue(11)：1935-1946,12.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.651
基于PLUS模型的黄河流域生态系统服务评价及多情景预测
Evaluation and multi-scenario prediction of ecosystem services in the Yellow River Basin based on PLUS model:A case of Shaanxi section
摘要
Abstract
The long-term supply and optimization of ecosystem services are critical for sustainable social develop-ment,necessitating a precise understanding of ecosystem service trends.This study integrates multi-source data,employing the InVEST model and an ecosystem service evaluation framework to analyze these trends.A compre-hensive assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem services in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin,China,was conducted from 2000 to 2020.The PLUS model was subsequently used to simulate and forecast land use and ecosystem service changes for 2035.The findings reveal that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the spatial distribution of comprehensive ecosystem service values in the Shaanxi section exhibited a"high in the south and low in the north"pattern,with high-value areas predominantly located in the southern region.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the comprehensive ecosystem service value initially declined and then increased significantly,with high-value areas expanding from south to north.Apart from soil conservation services,the values of other ecosys-tem services improved to varying extents,displaying significant spatial differentiation.(3)Under the ecological protection scenario,forest area notably increased,and service levels in the central and northern regions improved markedly.Conversely,in the construction priority scenario,the expansion of construction land led to decreased service levels in the Yellow River system and pronounced clustering of affected areas.In the sustainable develop-ment scenario,both forest and construction land expanded,significantly enhancing service levels in the northern part of the study area.Based on these results,this study examines the impacts of regional social development on ecosystem services and offers zoning and control recommendations,providing valuable insights for the high-qual-ity development of the Yellow River Basin.关键词
生态系统服务评价/PLUS模型/多情景模拟/黄河流域/陕西段Key words
evaluation of ecosystem services/PLUS model/multi-scenario simulation/Yellow River Basin/Shaanxi section引用本文复制引用
张艳,李骏南,潘博华..基于PLUS模型的黄河流域生态系统服务评价及多情景预测[J].干旱区地理,2024,47(11):1935-1946,12.基金项目
陕西省重大科技项目(2022ZDLSF07-05) （2022ZDLSF07-05）
中央高校基本科研业务费项目(自科)-培育项目(300102352203) （自科）
国家自然科学基金项目(41971033)资助 （41971033）
