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基于故障树-蒙特卡罗模拟的电动飞机推进系统可靠性分析

杨晓军 赵飞扬

航空科学技术2024,Vol.35Issue(10):76-85,10.
航空科学技术2024,Vol.35Issue(10):76-85,10.DOI:10.19452/j.issn1007-5453.2024.10.009

基于故障树-蒙特卡罗模拟的电动飞机推进系统可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of Electric Aircraft Propulsion System Based on Fault Tree-Monte Carlo Simulation

杨晓军 1赵飞扬1

作者信息

  • 1. 中国民航大学,天津 300300
  • 折叠

摘要

Abstract

With the continuous development of new energy electric aircraft,the research on airworthiness and reliability of electric aircraft is an important topic for the development of electric aircraft in the future.Firstly,the current situation of airworthiness certification and safety analysis of electric aircraft propulsion system at home and abroad is analyzed,and the difficulties in airworthiness certification and reliability analysis are clarified.Then,Simulation Software is used to model and simulate the propulsion system of a typical electric aircraft in China,and the fault mode is determined by referring to the airworthiness standards at home and abroad and the database of the NASA,and the fault tree of the propulsion system is established.The minimum cut set of the fault tree of the propulsion system and the distribution function it conforms to are used as the input values of Monte Carlo simulation.Finally,the Monte Carlo simulation is carried out by using Simulation Software,and the reliability of the top event is estimated by combining the reliability function of the bottom event,and the correctness of the simulation is verified by comparing with the actual operation data.The results show that cooling loss,thermal runaway,external short circuit/open circuit,and battery management system failure are the weak links of the propulsion system.The MTBF of the propulsion system is 6956.7h,which provides a reference for future airworthiness certification and feasibility verification of electric aircraft.

关键词

电动飞机/电推进系统/故障树分析/蒙特卡罗分析/MTBF

Key words

electric aircraft/electric propulsion system/fault tree analysis/Monte Carlo analysis/MTBF

分类

航空航天

引用本文复制引用

杨晓军,赵飞扬..基于故障树-蒙特卡罗模拟的电动飞机推进系统可靠性分析[J].航空科学技术,2024,35(10):76-85,10.

航空科学技术

1007-5453

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