中国林业经济韧性测度与影响因素研究OA北大核心CHSSCDCSTPCD

⑴ Background——In recent years,economic resilience has received renewed attention.The forestry econ-omy provides resource support for many industries.High-quality development of forestry economy provides important support for maintaining ecological balance and species diversity,reducing natural disasters and mitigating climate change,and the development of forestry economy is also a key factor to achieve rural revitalization.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to measure the resilience level of China's forestry economy and explore its influencing factors.However,at present,there are few researches on the resilience of forestry economy in China. ⑵Methods——On the basis of defining the resilience of forestry economy,this paper constructed the eval-uation index system of forestry economic resilience.The research data were collected from China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbooks,China Statistical Yearbooks and China Statistical Yearbooks on Environment.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2011 to 2020,this paper obtained the resilience index of China's forestry economy by using entropy weight method,and analyzed the regional differences in the resilience of China's forestry economy by calculating Theil index.Finally,it examined the explanatory power of each index to the regional differences by using geographical detector regression. ⑶ Results——The resilience level of China's forestry economy has continued to improve from 2011 to 2020,but the overall level is not high and the development is relatively uneven.The uneven overall development is mainly due to regional differences.The impact of different indexes on regional differences is different.The in-dex of forest resources,which consists of forest stock volume,forest coverage rate and afforestation area in the current year,has the primary explanatory power.The index of forestry labor and capital,which consists of the number of employees in forestry and grassland system,the amount of investment completed in forestry,the a-mount of investment completed in ecological construction and protection in the current year,and the average an-nual salary of employees,has secondary explanatory power.The indexes such as forestry market and industrial scale,ecological security and forestry industrial structure have important explanatory power,while the explana-tory power of the index of population and urbanization pressure is relatively ordinary. ⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Based on the above research conclusions,the following policy sug-gestions are put forward:First,pay attention to the protection and restoration of forest resources to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of total forest resources.Second,increase the investment of forestry labor force and the support of government funds.On one hand,promote rural revitalization and reduce the outflow of labor force;On the other hand,invest in advanced fields such as forestry technology to promote the development of forestry industry.Third,continue to expand the forest products market and industrial scale to effectively play to the advantages of China's ultra-large market.Fourth,establish ecological compensation mechanisms and environ-mental monitoring networks to reduce pollutant emissions and ensure ecological safety.Fifth,accelerate the trans-formation of the forestry industry,and strengthen the publicity of environmental education and promote the har-monious coexistence between man and nature.