气候变化研究进展2024，Vol.20Issue(6)：682-688,7.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.159
气候变暖对天气预报的影响及应对策略
The impact of climate warming on weather forecasting and coping strategies
摘要
Abstract
Weather forecasting is closely related to the social economy and people's lives.With the intensification of global warming,extreme weather events are widespread,frequent and intense,and traditional weather forecasting will face more significant challenges.Firstly,the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events is expounded in this paper,and then the impacts of global climate change on conventional and extreme weather forecast are analyzed,and it is found that climate change will increase the difficulty of extreme weather forecasting,and the role of improving the accuracy of extreme weather forecasting in disaster prevention and mitigation under the"new normal"is also emphasized and further analysis of climate warming will make weather forecasting face new challenges.On this basis,this paper further puts forward new trends of future weather forecast operational developments as well as countermeasures and suggestions to adapt to climate change,such as vigorously developing high-resolution and multi-circle nested numerical prediction models,in-depth research on the mechanism and predictability of extreme weather events in the context of climate change,developing the combination of dynamic-statistical model based on mechanism and big data analysis,artificial intelligence technology and new forecasting methods,and improving the scientific literacy and ability of forecasters.关键词
气候变暖/天气预报/应对策略Key words
Climate warming/Weather forecasting/Coping strategies引用本文复制引用
丁一汇,柳艳菊,徐影,谌芸..气候变暖对天气预报的影响及应对策略[J].气候变化研究进展,2024,20(6):682-688,7.基金项目
广东省基础与应用基础研究重大项目(2020B0301030004) （2020B0301030004）
中国气象局重点创新团队"气候变化检测与应对"(CMA2022ZD03) （CMA2022ZD03）
