生态学报2024，Vol.44Issue(22)：10411-10426,16.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202302160261
近30年来青藏高原粮食供需平衡格局演变及其驱动因素
Evolution and driving factors of grain supply and demand balance in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in recent 30 years
摘要
Abstract
Evaluating the spatiotemporal evolution of grain supply-demand balance and its influencing factors on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is crucial for ensuring food security and sustainable agricultural development.It plays a strategic role in strengthening border areas,promoting economic growth in ethnic minority regions,and ensuring social stability.This study utilizes a comprehensive approach,combining consumption statistics,production-sales balance index,spatial trend surface analysis,and the OPGD model,to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in the grain supply-demand balance on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1990 to 2020,as well as the underlying factors driving these changes.Additionally,the study aims to provide policy recommendations for enhancing food security and facilitating sustainable agricultural development in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The research results reveal that the self-sufficiency rate of grain on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau increased from 106.53％to 120.21％between 1990 and 2020.The regional grain supply-demand relationship shifted from a state of tight balance to balanced supply and demand overall.However,notable regional disparities exist in the grain supply-demand pattern.The intersection of grain shortages and severe shortages occurs in regions such as the northern Tibetan Plateau,Qinghai Plateau,Gannan Plateau,western part of the Qaidam Basin,and the Sichuan-Tibet alpine valley areas.Areas with grain surplus and abundance are concentrated in the Yarlung Zangbo River and its two tributaries in southern Tibet,the Hehuang Valle,the river valleys in the high mountain canyons of the Sichuan-Tibet region,and the oasis agricultural areas in the Pamir-Kunlun Mountains region.These areas are predominantly agricultural counties.The critical equilibrium zone is distributed in a belt-like pattern along the northern and southern border areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The spatial variation in grain production on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is mainly influenced by regional disparities in natural conditions,differences in input factors,and economic development gaps.Furthermore,there is a synergistic strengthening effect between economic factors and input factors.Labor and capital have consistently been the two most critical production factors influencing grain production on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The impact of fertilizer input intensity has decreased,while the influence of agricultural technology investment has significantly risen.The explanatory power of income level,food accessibility,food consumption structure,and population structure on the spatial differentiation of grain consumption on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau weakened in sequence.Recommendations include improving the food security level of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau through grain production and sales cooperation,agriculture and animal husbandry cooperation,adjustment of planting structures,enhancement of internal and external transportation infrastructure,and local grain reserves.关键词
粮食供需平衡/粮食安全/地理探测器/青藏高原/空间格局Key words
grain supply and demand balance/food security/geographical detector/the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau/spatial pattern引用本文复制引用
段健,王维婷,徐勇,汝旖星..近30年来青藏高原粮食供需平衡格局演变及其驱动因素[J].生态学报,2024,44(22):10411-10426,16.基金项目
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0406) （2019QZKK0406）
国家自然科学基金项目(42001128) （42001128）
