数字图书馆论坛2024，Vol.20Issue(10)：22-32,11.DOI:10.3772/j.issn.1673-2286.2024.10.003
因果推断及其在国防领域的应用研究
Causal Inference and Its Application in the Field of National Defense:Taking DARPA Causal Inference Intelligence Project in the United States as an Example
摘要
Abstract
Affected by the rapid development of technology and changes in the combat environment,the process of national defense construction is facing unprecedented complexity.How to assist decision-makers in more accurately understanding the causal logic between complex system elements,and further consolidate and improve the level of national defense construction is one of the important issues in the field of national defense.Based on the elaboration of causal knowledge such as Rubin causal model and structural causal model,this study takes a series of causal inference intelligence projects carried out by Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency(DARPA)in the United States as an example to analyze the important value and specific application scenarios of causal inference in national defense construction.Combining the trends of causal inference intelligence projects,this article explores the inspirations and suggestions for China's national defense construction.Research has shown that causal inference has unique advantages in improving the accuracy and interpretability of national defense decisions.In the future,it is necessary to face up to and actively introduce causal inference,attach importance to data resource construction,enhance the level of technological intelligence,strengthen supervision and management,and accelerate the application of causal inference in national defense construction.关键词
因果推断/国防建设/美国/国防高级研究计划局/鲁宾因果模型/结构因果模型Key words
Causal Inference/National Defense Construction/America/Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency/Rubin Causal Model/Structural Causal Model分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
任前前,白如江,陈鑫,刘睿琳..因果推断及其在国防领域的应用研究[J].数字图书馆论坛,2024,20(10):22-32,11.基金项目
本研究得到山东省哲学社会科学青年人才团队"面向国家安全的多源数据智慧情报感知研究"(编号:2023-zkzd-061)资助. （编号:2023-zkzd-061）
