中国防汛抗旱2024，Vol.34Issue(11)：17-22,6.DOI:10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024356
珠江流域枯季中长期水文预报方法探讨
Discussion on the medium and long-term hydrological forecasting method in dry seasons of the Pearl River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The medium and long-term runoff forecast is one of the important parts of the water regulation.At present,there are 6 main methods applied to the medium and long-term hydrological forecasting in the Pearl River Basin in dry season,which are the historical evolution method,mean generation function,periodic mean superposition analysis,Markov forecasting model,multivariate stepwise regression and the random forest model.This paper summarizes all the medium and long-term hydrological forecasting methods in the the Pearl River basin in the past,introduces their basic concepts and model principles,and further discusses and analyzes various methods in combination with the actual situation to improve the accuracy of medium and long-term hydrological forecasting.关键词
珠江流域/中长期水文预报/预报方法Key words
the Pearl River Basin/medium and long-term hydrological forecast/forecasting method分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
钱燕,蓝羽栖..珠江流域枯季中长期水文预报方法探讨[J].中国防汛抗旱,2024,34(11):17-22,6.基金项目
水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022038) （SKR-2022038）
国家自然科学基金重点项目(52439002). （52439002）
