摘要
Abstract
Objective:To establish a risk prediction model for elderly patients with osteoporotic spinal fracture after discharge.Methods:Clinical data of 150 elderly patients with osteoporotic spinal fracture admitted to Liangshan County People's Hospital from December 2020 to May 2023 were retrospectively analysed.They were divided into a recurrent fracture group(n=44)and a non-recurrent fracture group(n=106)according to whether they had recurrent fracture within one year after discharge.regression analysis was used to determine the factors affecting the recurrence of fractures after discharge,the risk prediction model was constructed.The predictive efficiency of the model was evaluated by using the receiver operating characteristic curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test.Results:After 1 year of follow-up,44 patients had fracture again,the incidence was 29.33%.Logistic regression analysis showed that age 70 to 80 years old,female,low bone mineral density,low 25-hydroxyvitamin D3,≥2 vertebral bodies with the first fracture,lack of regular exercise after discharge and lack of regular use of anti-osteoporosis drugs after discharge were independent influencing factors for recurrent fractures in elderly patients with osteoporotic spinal fractures after discharge(P＜0.05).The predictive model area under the curve was 0.869,the Jorden index was 0.429,the sensitivity was 0.846,the specificity was 0.583.Conclusion:Older age,female,low bone mineral density,low 25-hydroxyvitamin D3,≥2 vertebrae fractured for the first time,lack of regular exercise after discharge and lack of regular use of anti-osteoporosis drugs after discharge may increase the risk of recurrent fracture in elderly patients with osteoporotic spinal fractures.Clinical attention should be paid to the above factors.关键词
骨质疏松性脊柱骨折/再发骨折/老年/风险预测模型Key words
Osteoporotic spinal fracture/Recurrent fracture/Old age/Risk prediction model分类
医药卫生
