中国海洋渔业经济韧性评价及时空演变特征研究OA

Based on resilience theory,combined with the connotation of marine fishery economic resilience,an evaluation index system for China's marine fishery economic resilience is estab-lished.This paper employs the CRITIC-based combined weight model to calculate the compre-hensive evaluation index,utilizing both the Coefficient of Variation Method and the Entropy Weight Method to determine the weights of the indicators.Utilizing the GIS spatial analysis technology,this paper explores the temporal and spatial characteristics of the economic resilience of the marine fishery,and applies the Markov chain to analyze the characteristics of its dynamic evolution.The results indicate that:(1)The overall economic resilience of marine fisheries in China's coastal provinces from 2001 to 2020 is on the rise;from different dimensions,the re-sistance-recovery ability and innovation-transformation ability exhibit a fluctuating upward trend,whereas the adaptive-adjustment ability shows a downward trend.(2)The high-value area of marine fisheries economic resilience exhibits a tendency to expand towards the south,while the medium-value and the higher-value areas gradually expand to both the north and south.Meanwhile,the spatial distribution of the low-value area remains relatively stable.(3)The results of Markov chain analysis reveal that the development state of marine fisheries eco-nomic resilience is relatively stable during the study period,and simultaneously,it displays the characteristics of club convergence.The probability of maintaining the current level of develop-ment in each province and region gradually decreases,while the probability of developing to-wards a high level increases.The results of the trend forecast suggest that a"leapfrog"stage of evolution is likely to occur in the future,with the number of high-level provinces and districts anticipated to continue to rise.