近40a远洋渔业主要作业海域海表温度异常年际变化分析OA北大核心CSTPCD

Sea surface temperature(SST)is a crucial oceanic parameter affecting marine ecosystems and human society.Over the past 40 years,pelagic fisheries have operated mainly in the Pacific,Atlantic,and Indian Oceans,where SST anomalies inevitably affect these areas.Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Optimum Interpolated Monthly Mean Sea Surface Temperature data(1982-2021)and the Southern Oscillation In-dex(SOI)published by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 1982-2021,we analyzed SST anomalies in key pelagic fisheries.The time series of SST anomalies from 1982 to 2021 were analyzed using Fourier transform to identify significant changes in the time series.The correlation between the SST anomalies and the SOI was exam-ined,and Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess(STL)decomposition was applied to investigate the sea-sonal intensity and trends of SST changes across different oceanic regions.The analysis of SST anomalies from 1982 to 2021 in offshore fisheries shows fluctuations between-0.39℃and 0.37℃,with a 3-4-year cycle.Com-pared with the SOI time series over the same period,they fluctuated in the inverse phase on an interannual scale.After the significance analysis,it was found that SST anomalies inversely correlated with the SOI on an interannual scale,with a significant negative correlation(0.351)at a significant level of 0.05.Comparing this result with the analysis of interannual SST anomalies from 1982 to 2011 reveals a sustained increasing trend in the average SST anomalies across the main pelagic fisheries.The trend curves for various fisheries indicate a continuous rise in av-erage SSTA.The SSTA trend curves indicate an increasing trend across all fishing grounds.The eastern Pacific Ocean and the southeastern Pacific Ocean have changed from decreasing to increasing trends,highlighting the in-fluence of ENSO events.Detrended correlation analysis reveals significant correlations between SST anomalies and SOI in the eastern Pacific,northwestern Pacific,mid-Atlantic,and eastern Indian Oceans,with coefficients of-0.874,0.395,0.334,and-0.380,respectively.No significant correlation was found in other fishing grounds.Sea-sonal intensity is highest in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and East Indian Ocean and lowest in the West Pacific Ocean.A comparative analysis with the mean and standard deviation of the past 30 years shows a significant up-ward trend in SST anomalies in pelagic fisheries over the past 10 years.This period also exhibits greater tempera-ture fluctuations and instability,indicating the more pronounced impact of climate change on the oceans.