江淮水利科技Issue(5)：26-30,56,6.DOI:10.20011/j.cnki.JHWR.202405006
闽西南水资源配置工程调出区与调入区丰枯遭遇研究
Study on the encounter of wet and dry conditions between the water export and import areas in the water resources allocation project of Southwest Fujian
陈艳 1李臻 2陈梅 3吕攀屹1
作者信息
- 1. 中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司,广东 广州 510610
- 2. 水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100120
- 3. 水利部珠江水利委员会珠江水利综合技术中心,广东 广州 510611
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
To analyze the feasibility of diverting water from the Hanjiang Basin to Southwest Fujian,the Copula theory was ap-plied to construct a joint distribution model of annual runoff for representative hydrological stations in the water export area of the Hanjiang Basin and the water import area of Southwest Fujian.This model quantitatively described the probability of wet and dry condition encounters between the Hanjiang export area and the Southwest Fujian import area.The probability rate of both the Shanghang station in the Hanjiang Basin and the Shilong station in Jinjiang experiencing a dry year(P≥75%)simul-taneously was 16.07%.The probability of both experiencing an extremely dry year(P≥95%)simultaneously was 2.24%.When the Shilong station in Jinjiang experienced an extremely dry year(P≥95%),the probability of the Shanghang station in the Hanjiang Basin experiencing a dry year(P≥75%)was 4.48%.The results indicated that in other words,the probability of both the Hanjiang Basin and the Jinjiang Basin in Fujian experiencing extremely dry years simultaneously was very low,and the probability of the two stations experiencing synchronized flood and drought frequencies was also relatively small.The research results provided a technical basis for analyzing the feasibility of constructing the water resource allocation project in Southwest Fujian.关键词
韩江流域/丰枯遭遇/可行性分析/Copula函数Key words
Hanjiang Basin/the probability of concurrent wet and dry conditions/feasibility analysis/Copula function分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
陈艳,李臻,陈梅,吕攀屹..闽西南水资源配置工程调出区与调入区丰枯遭遇研究[J].江淮水利科技,2024,(5):26-30,56,6.
