山东科学2024，Vol.37Issue(6)：1-11,11.DOI:10.3976/j.issn.1002-4026.20240019
基于小波变换与改进时间序列模型的船舶升沉运动预测方法
Ship heave motion prediction method based on wavelet transform and improved time series model
摘要
Abstract
Lag in detecting ship heave motion signals severely affects the performance of ocean heave compensation systems.Therefore,accurate heave motion prediction can effectively improve the stability and real-time performance of these systems.To improve the engineering practicability of a heave motion prediction model,we designed an autoregressive time-series model featuring high calculation efficiency,simple programing,and a small accumulation error.Moreover,to further address the poor adaptability of the model to nonlinear and nonstationary complex sea conditions and long-term predictions,we developed a combined prediction model based on wavelet transform and improved autoregression using the wavelet multiscale analysis method and achieved online multistep prediction of heave motions by decomposing and transforming historical data,reconstructing sub-sequence prediction,and forecasting data synthesis.Finally,theoretical testing and experiments were conducted on stationary random waveforms and nonstationary waveforms measured on ships.The analysis results show that the combined model exhibits good prediction performance and can effectively reduce the control error of the ocean heave compensation system caused by the lag in the heave motion signal detection.关键词
海洋工程/升沉补偿/时间序列预测/小波变换Key words
ocean engineering/heave compensation/time-series prediction/wavelet transformation分类
石油、天然气工程引用本文复制引用
刘志臻,黄鲁蒙,孙亚鹏,张颖,刘振东..基于小波变换与改进时间序列模型的船舶升沉运动预测方法[J].山东科学,2024,37(6):1-11,11.基金项目
大型电气传动系统与装备技术国家重点实验室(天水电气传动研究所集团有限公司)开放基金课题(SKLLDJ032022004) （天水电气传动研究所集团有限公司）
山东省重点研发计划(重大科技创新工程)项目(2022CXGC020402) （重大科技创新工程）
国家重点研发计划(2021YFB3401400) （2021YFB3401400）
