水土保持研究2025，Vol.32Issue(1)：368-378,11.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.01.029
基于PLUS模型的典型农牧交错带土地利用驱动力分析与多情景模拟
Analysis of driving force and multi-scenario simulation of land use in a typical agro-pastoral ecotone based on the PLUS model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aims of this study are to achieve precise prediction of fragmented land use changes in agro-pastoral ecotones,and to provide an important tool for land use forecasting and structural adjustment in these regions.[Methods]An Agro-pastoral Ecotone Patch-generating Land Use Simulation method(APE-PLUS)was constructed.The challenges of fragmented patches,landscape fragmentation,and complex change mechanisms in land use simulation within agro-pastoral ecotones were addressed by incorporating the land expansion analysis strategy(LEAS),a Cellular Automata model based on multi-type random patch seeds(CARS),the Markov model,and land use scenario design.Land use data from the second and third national land surveys were utilized to analyze land use changes and their driving forces from 2014 to 2020.The land use patterns in Horqin Left Back Banner for the year 2032 under scenarios of natural growth,ecological priority,cultivated land protection,and sustainable development were simulated.[Results](1)The Agro-pastoral Ecotone Patch-generating Land Use Simulation method(APE-PLUS)demonstrated high accuracy,with a Kappa coefficient of 0.87 and an overall accuracy of 0.92.(2)From 2014 to 2020,Horqin Left Back Banner experienced significant changes in land use,with 47.85％of the land types undergoing transformation.14.65％of the land was converted from cultivated fields to grasslands,with DEM and water resources being the primary drivers of these changes during this period.(3)In the multi-scenario forecasts for 2032,the sustainable development scenario predicts 1.31％increase in cultivated land area,0.77％decrease in woodland,1.72％decrease in grassland,and 28.4％decrease in other land.Compared to the other three scenarios,this scenario presents a more rational land use quantity structure and spatial pattern.It helps mitigate the expansion of cultivated land and the reduction of grassland,effectively controls soil erosion and desertification,and enhances the coordination between ecological conservation and economic development.[Conclusion]The Agro-pastoral Ecotone Patch-generating Land Use Simulation method(APE-PLUS)demonstrates high simulation accuracy for land use in Horqin Left Back Banner,enabling high-precision prediction of patch-level land use changes in agro-pastoral ecotones.关键词
土地利用变化/农牧交错带/PLUS模型/科尔沁左翼后旗/驱动因子Key words
land use change/agro-pastoral ecotone/PLUS model/Horqin Left Back Banner/driving factors分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张启扬,刘仁志,栾朝旭..基于PLUS模型的典型农牧交错带土地利用驱动力分析与多情景模拟[J].水土保持研究,2025,32(1):368-378,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52170186) （52170186）
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC050350403) （2016YFC050350403）
