铁道运输与经济2024，Vol.46Issue(12)：145-151,7.DOI:10.16668/j.cnki.issn.1003-1421.2024.12.15
基于随机森林算法的JSQ6型车走行时间预测研究
Travel Time Prediction of JSQ6-Type Vehicle Based on Random Forest Algorithm
摘要
Abstract
Accurately predicting the travel time of vehicles during railway freight transportation helps dispatchers develop transportation organization plans and vehicle loading and unloading plans in advance and facilitates shippers to be informed of the arrival time of goods.To explore the problem of predicting the travel time of JSQ6-type vehicles that specialize in transporting commercial cars through railways,this article analyzed the travel characteristics of JSQ6-type vehicles and extracted factors that affected the travel time of JSQ6-type vehicles,such as distance from the destination station,number of stations from the destination station,number of technical stations from the destination station,number of JSQ6-type vehicles included in the vehicle set,JSQ6-type vehicle grouping method,and source of reported data from the perspectives of vehicle spatial state and vehicle self-state.To improve the travel time prediction accuracy of JSQ6-type vehicles,a travel time prediction method of vehicles based on a random forest model was designed.The results show that the goodness of fit of the model is 0.908,and the mean square error is 41.565.Compared with the prediction of the travel time of existing vehicles,it has higher accuracy and is more suitable for the travel time prediction of JSQ6-type vehicles,achieving better prediction results.关键词
铁路货物运输/车辆走行时间/影响因素/预测模型/随机森林Key words
Railway Freight Transportation/Vehicle Travel Time/Influencing Factor/Prediction Model/Random Forest分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
冀柯维,王莹,张家瑞,周姗姗,李苏..基于随机森林算法的JSQ6型车走行时间预测研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2024,46(12):145-151,7.基金项目
中铁特货物流股份有限公司科技研究开发计划项目(ZTTH-2022-WT-032) （ZTTH-2022-WT-032）
