化工进展2024，Vol.43Issue(z1)：61-70,10.DOI:10.16085/j.issn.1000-6613.2024-0340
基于贝叶斯网络的掺氢管道泄漏风险评价方法
Bayesian network risk assessment method for hydrogen blending natural gas pipeline leakage
摘要
Abstract
Hydrogen is a reliable clean energy,and the hydrogen doping of natural gas with a volume concentration of 10％-20％is currently a hot spot in the research on the economical and efficient transportation of hydrogen at home and abroad.However,the density,calorific value,resistance,etc.of natural gas change after hydrogen doping,breaking the dynamic balance of the pipeline network.Different hydrogen doping ratios have an impact on the compatibility,safety accidents and integrity of pipelines,which will increase the risk of pipeline failure.Therefore,this paper analyzed the failure risk of the dynamic process of hydrogen doping in natural gas pipelines,identified various risk factors that might occur in the process of hydrogen doping,established an accident tree with the failure of natural gas hydrogen doping pipelines as the top event,and then transformed it into the corresponding Bayesian network according to the mapping relationship between the accident tree and the Bayesian network.The time factor was incorporated into the analysis,and the dynamic Bayesian network analysis of natural gas hydrogen doped pipeline failure was carried out to obtain the key factors leading to pipeline failure and the change trend over time.Considering that different hydrogen doping ratios would have an impact on the prior probability of some basic events of pipelines,the failure probability was updated under the condition of 5％-30％hydrogen doping ratio,and the change trend of pipeline failure probability with hydrogen doping ratio was obtained,which provided new ideas and methods for the risk management and control of natural gas pipeline hydrogen doping technology.关键词
掺氢天然气管道/失效风险分析/贝叶斯网络/事故树/leaky noisy-or gate模型Key words
hydrogen blended natural gas pipeline/failure risk analysis/Bayesian network/fault tree/leaky noisy-or gate model分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
徐晴晴,张璇,赵瑞东,熊鑫,蒋璐朦,禹盛阳..基于贝叶斯网络的掺氢管道泄漏风险评价方法[J].化工进展,2024,43(z1):61-70,10.基金项目
中国石油科技创新基金(2021DQ02-0801) （2021DQ02-0801）
中国石油天然气集团有限公司-中国石油大学(北京)战略合作科技专项项目(ZLZX2020-05). （北京）
