环境工程学报2024，Vol.18Issue(10)：2677-2685,9.DOI:10.12030/j.cjee.202403069
2020-2060年中国森林碳汇及碳移除潜力分析
Analysis of forest carbon sinks and carbon removal potential in China from 2020 to 2060
摘要
Abstract
By using Miami model and GIS spatial analysis model,forest carbon sinks and direct CO2 emissions in China at a 10*10 km grid from 2020 to 2060 were comprehensively simulated,spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon removal in forest carbon sinks were analyzed,and the contribution of carbon sinks to achieving the goal of carbon neutrality was further explored.The results showed that direct CO2 emissions in China showed a persistent downward trend from 2020 to 2060,with an average annual decrease rate of 2.89％～4.19％.Forest carbon sinks showed a persistent upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of 1.83％～2.29％.From the spatial perspective,direct CO2 emissions and forest carbon sinks performed regional heterogeneity.Provinces with higher CO2 emissions were mainly distributed in eastern provinces such as Shandong and Hebei,while provinces with higher forest carbon sinks were mainly distributed in provinces(or autonomous regions)like Inner Mongolia and Jilin.From the temporal perspective,the ratio of forest carbon sinks to direct CO2 emissions gradually increased,and the number of provinces that had achieved net-zero emission target significantly increases from 2020 to 2060.Specifically,only Tibet could achieve net-zero emission goals in 2020 under the effect of forest carbon sinks.In 2060,14 and 10 provinces(or autonomous regions and municipalities)would achieve near-zero emission targets in the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios,respectively.Furthermore,by comparing the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios,the implementation of sustainable development strategies was crucial to achieving the"Dual-carbon"goals.The research results identify the pivot role of forest carbon sinks in achieving China's"Dual-carbon"goal,thereby providing a solid data foundation and theoretical support for policymaking of carbon sinks.关键词
森林碳汇/碳排放/碳移除/碳中和Key words
forest carbon sink/CO2 emissions/carbon removal/carbon neutrality分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
贾敏,王力,蔡博峰,叶舒,李明煜,黄妮,白彦锋,阮建辉,张立,郑海涛,汤铃..2020-2060年中国森林碳汇及碳移除潜力分析[J].环境工程学报,2024,18(10):2677-2685,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFC3807700) （2023YFC3807700）
