辽宁农业科学Issue(6)：56-60,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1728.2024.06.010
阜新地区农作物生长季气候资源趋势预测分析
Forecast and Analysis of Climate and Resource Trends during Crop Growing Season in Fuxin Region
摘要
Abstract
Based on the meteorological data from May to September of 1953 to 2023 in Fuxin,the trend and forecast analysis of relevant meteorological factors were carried out by using rescaled range(R/S)and V sta-tistics,the results:During the 1953～1953 growing season,the mean temperature and accumulated tempera-ture≥10℃ in the Fuxin 2023 showed an increasing trend,while the precipitation and sunshine hours showed a decreasing trend.The Hurst indices of the four meteorological factors were all obviously greater than 0.5,which indicated that the long-term memory characteristics existed in them,precipitation and sunshine hours still showed a downward trend.The average cycles of temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration and accu-mulated temperature≥10℃ were 14,16,13 and 14 years respectively.In other words,the trend of mean temperature and active accumulated temperature≥10℃ in the growing season reversed after 14 years,and the trend of precipitation and sunshine duration reversed to an upward trend after 16 years and 13 years respec-tively.The correlation of each meteorological factor is not the same,the average temperature and≥10℃ ac-cumulated temperature have a high correlation with each factor,The regression equations all passed the signifi-cance test of 0.001;The correlation between precipitation and sunshine duration and the influencing factors was not high,and The regression equations all passed the significance test of 0.1.关键词
农作物/气候资源/重标极差分析/V统计量/趋势预测/阜新地区Key words
Crop/Climatic resources/Rescaled range analysis/V statistic/Trend prediction/Fuxin region分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
杨晓彤,舒海燕,孙可,张旭,陶倩,范野,常相伊,张艺函..阜新地区农作物生长季气候资源趋势预测分析[J].辽宁农业科学,2024,(6):56-60,5.基金项目
辽宁省气象局科研项目(ZD202257/202315) （ZD202257/202315）
