基于水资源配置模型的供水安全韧性评价:以北京市为例OA北大核心CSTPCD

[Objective]In the context of global climate change,the intensification of human activities has caused increased urban water supply risks,especially the water supply safety of large cities is facing huge challenges.In order to evaluate the influence that the large cities may be affected and the ability to withstand risks in the risk of water supply,[Methods]this article analyzes the connotation of water supply safety resilience,selects risk,recovery,stability,and vulnerability as an evaluation indicator,and uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method evaluate water supply safety resilience;take Beijing as an example to analyze the risk scenario involved in urban water supply safety,set up a combination of three types of water supply risk scenarios;use the ROWAS water resource allocation model to simulate the water shortage plan of each scenario,evaluate water supply safety resili-ence in Beijing Overall and various regions.[Results]The research result show that:(1)The spatial of water supply safety re-silience in various scenarios is relatively large;(2)By comparative analysis of various scenarios,a weak area of water supply matched with the scope of water supply protection is identified to improve water supply guarantee for local areas to improve local area water supply guarantees,the ability points the direction;(3)Under the most unfavorable scenario(scenario 3),the overall water supply safety resilience level in Beijing is low,with an evaluation value of only 0.116,a decrease of 68.8%compared with Scenic 1,and a decrease of 12.5%compared with Scenic 2.Further explains the importance of water transfer to Beijings water supply system.[Conclusion]Through scenario simulation,this method helps to identify the regional shortcomings of various re-gions in the large cities in response to the water supply risk incident,provide technical support for improving the ability of urban water supply safety and providing advanced decision-making levels that provide risk management.