滇东南喀斯特地区生态系统服务时空演变及权衡协同关系OA北大核心CSTPCD

[Objective]The karst region in southeastern Yunnan is a crucial ecological functional area in China.However,with the rapid progress of urbanization,the ecological environment has been severely damaged,leading to a general decline in ecosys-tem service functions.[Methods]Based on multi-source data including land use,meteorology,soil,and socio-economics from 2000 to 2020,the PLUS model was used to simulate the spatial pattern of land use changes under three scenarios by 2035:natu-ral development,ecological protection,and economic development.In conjunction with the InVEST model,four ecosystem serv-ices—water yield,carbon storage,soil retention,and habitat quality—were assessed.Spearmans correlation coefficient was then employed to explore the spatiotemporal trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services.[Results]From 2000 to 2020,the areas of construction land and water bodies increased significantly,by 484.21 km2 and 154.40 km2 respectively,while the areas of forest land,cultivated land,unused land,and grassland decreased by 438.63 km2,89.86 km2,99.47 km2,and 10.65 km2 respectively.From 2020 to 2035,under the ecological protection scenario,construction land,water bodies,and forest land areas showed slight expansion,while grassland,cultivated land,and unused land areas showed a shrinking trend.Under the natural development scenario,construction land increased significantly,while cultivated land and grassland decreased.Under the eco-nomic development scenario,construction land increased substantially,while cultivated land,forest land,and grassland de-creased significantly.From 2000 to 2020,there were significant differences in ecosystem service changes across the study area.Water yield exhibited a southeast-high and northwest-low spatial distribution,with a temporal pattern of"initial increase followed by decrease."Carbon storage showed small changes,with declining areas scattered in the central,southern,and northern parts of the study area during the research period.Soil retention displayed a south-high and north-low spatial pattern,with large areas of decrease in carbon storage in the western region and large areas of increase in the eastern region over time.Habitat quality was predominantly distributed in a band across the central and southern parts of the study area,with a general trend of large declines in the east and west over 20 years.By 2035,under the ecological protection scenario,water yield,carbon storage,soil reten-tion,and habitat quality were significantly improved,highlighting the importance of ecological protection in enhancing the region-al ecological environment.Under the natural development and economic development scenarios,the area of high-value regions significantly decreased,indicating substantial pressure and impact on ecosystem service functions.From 2000 to 2020,the corre-lation between soil retention and water yield was the strongest,with an index above 0.8,while the correlation between water yield and carbon storage was the weakest and showed a declining trend.The correlation coefficient between carbon storage and water yield was the lowest,and the correlation coefficient between soil retention and water yield was the highest.From 2020 to 2035,under various development scenarios,ecosystem services generally exhibited synergistic relationships.[Conclusion]The result show that the changes in ecosystem services in the karst region of southeastern Yunnan are significantly influenced by adjustments in land use structure,with spatial differences in their changing trends and trade-off/synergy relationships.The study provides im-portant technical support and theoretical reference for ecological protection in karst landform areas.