Impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal forecast of the 2014/15 marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific OceanOA
Impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal forecast of the 2014/15 marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific Ocean
2013年底至2016年初,东北太平洋上发生了历史上罕见的极端海洋热浪事件(称为"Blob"事件),形成了从海表延伸至海洋深处300m的强烈且持续的海温暖异常.本文利用南京信息工程大学全球气候预测系统1.0版本(NUIST-CFS 1.0),采用两种海洋资料同化方案,探究海洋资料同化差异对这一极端海洋热浪事件季节预测的影响.本文采用的一种同化方案为仅同化海表面温度(Surface sea temperature,SST)的SST-nudging方案,而另一种方案为在前一种方案的基础上加入确定性集合卡尔曼滤波(Deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter,DEnKF),同化更多海洋观测数据的EnKF方案.主要结论为,利用EnKF方案可显著提高对"Blob"期间次表层温度异常预测的准确性,这主要源于EnKF方案在预测次表层的水平和垂直热传输方面表现出色.该研究有助于更好地理解海洋热浪事件潜在物理机制及其季节预测水平.
Tiantian Tang;Jiaying He;Huihang Sun;Jingjia Luo
Institute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,ChinaInstitute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,ChinaInstitute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,ChinaInstitute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing,China
季节预测海洋资料同化海洋热浪事件次表层海温
Seasonal forecastOcean data assimilationMarine heatwaveSubsurface temperature
《大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）》 2025 (1)
24-31,8
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42030605]and the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2020YFA0608004].The model simulation was conducted at the High Performance Computing Center of Nanjing Uni-versity of Information Science and Technology.
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