干旱区地理2024，Vol.47Issue(12)：2083-2092,10.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.110
甘肃省雷暴大风活动特征及潜势预报研究
Characteristic and potential prediction of thunderstorm in Gansu Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on hourly extreme wind speed and lightning localization data from 2115 observation stations in Gansu Province,China for the period from 2017 to 2021,combined with ECMWF ensemble forecasting data,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics as well as the convective parameter characteristics of thunder-storm were analyzed.The potential prediction of thunderstorm was conducted using a multi-index nested meth-od.The results indicate that thunderstorm primarily occur from April to September,with the highest frequency from May to July,accounting for 65.3% of the total occurrences.The hourly occurrence of thunderstorm is con-centrated between 15:00 and 21:00,peaking at 17:00.The spatial distribution of thunderstorm is strongly influ-enced by the terrain in Gansu Province.Spatially,the frequency of thunderstorm decreases from west to east.Thunderstorm are more frequent in plateaus than in valleys,with the highest occurrences observed in the Gannan Plateau and the lowest in southeastern Gansu Province.Thunderstorm in Gansu Province predominantly fall into categories 8 and 9,while those above category 10 mainly occur in the Hexi Region and Gannan Plateau.Potential forecast probability products for thunderstorm in Gansu Province were obtained based on convective parameters and indicator threshold.Test results reveal a strong concurrence between the forecasted and actual occurrence ar-eas,providing a significant reference value to improve the thunderstorm forecast in Gansu Province.关键词
雷暴大风/活动特征/潜势预报/甘肃省Key words
thunderstorm/characteristic/potential prediction/Gansu Province引用本文复制引用
谭丹,聂灿齐,黄武斌,李文瑶,谢丽君..甘肃省雷暴大风活动特征及潜势预报研究[J].干旱区地理,2024,47(12):2083-2092,10.基金项目
甘肃省科技基金计划项目(22JR5RA752,23JRRA1324) （22JR5RA752,23JRRA1324）
甘肃省气象局气象科学技术研究项目(Ms2022-07)资助 （Ms2022-07）
