干旱区地理2024，Vol.47Issue(12)：2104-2114,11.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.234
基于TVDI的近20a吐鲁番市干旱及影响因素分析
TVDI-based analysis of drought and influencing factors in Turpan City in the last 20 years
摘要
Abstract
In the context of an intensifying global greenhouse effect,accurate drought monitoring is critical for ensuring regional ecological security,economic development,and agricultural production.Turpan City,a key base for grape and cantaloupe cultivation in Xinjiang and a significant transportation hub on the Silk Road in Chi-na,holds a strategic position.In recent years,water resource scarcity due to the city's geographic and climatic conditions has exacerbated drought issues,impeding the long-term and stable socio-economic development of Turpan City and its surrounding regions.This study establishes the temperature-vegetation drought index(TVDI)model using MODIS normalized difference vegetation index and land surface temperature data from 2001-2022.The spatial and temporal variations of drought in Turpan City over the past 20 years and its evolving pat-terns were analyzed using trend analysis,the Mann-Kendall trend test,and Geodetector methods.Additionally,the influence of various factors(including mean annual temperature,rainfall,potential evapotranspiration,land cover type,population density,elevation,and slope)on TVDI was investigated.The results indicate that:(1)The spatial distribution of TVDI in Turpan City exhibits distinct regional characteristics,with a gradual increase in aridity from north to south.Analysis of the trends reveals that the overall aridity of Turpan City has intensified,with 89.6% of the area showing a significant increase in TVDI,6.9% showing a non-significant increase,and on-ly 3.5% showing no increase in aridity.(2)The interannual trend of TVDI demonstrates a progressive increase in drought severity over the past 20 years,peaking in 2022.Notably,there are marked seasonal differences in the monthly variability of TVDI,generally following the order spring>autumn>summer.(3)Single-factor analysis highlights that potential evapotranspiration,temperature,and elevation are the top three factors influencing drought trends in Turpan City.Under multifactor interactions,potential evapotranspiration interacts with eleva-tion,temperature,precipitation,and land cover to collectively drive aridification.关键词
干旱/温度植被干旱指数(TVDI)/趋势分析/地理探测器/吐鲁番市Key words
drought/temperature-vegetation drought index(TVDI)/trend analysis/Geodetector/Turpan City引用本文复制引用
周孝明,张喆,张越,王俣凝..基于TVDI的近20a吐鲁番市干旱及影响因素分析[J].干旱区地理,2024,47(12):2104-2114,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42061066) （42061066）
校级大学生创新训练计划项目(XJU-SRT-23014)资助 （XJU-SRT-23014）
