环境保护科学2024，Vol.50Issue(6)：110-118,9.DOI:10.16803/j.cnki.issn.1004-6216.202308015
四川省种养业碳排放时空演变、影响因素与趋势分析
Spatiotemporal evolution,influencing factors,and trend analysis of carbon emissions from breeding industry in Sichuan Province
摘要
Abstract
To study the evolution trend and causes of carbon emissions from the breeding industry in Sichuan Province,the spatio-temporal pattern,influencing factors and future trend of carbon emissions from the breeding industry in Sichuan Province were explored based on emission factor method,grey system and LMDI decomposition model.The results showed that from 2000 to 2020,carbon emissions in the agricultural sector of Sichuan Province showed a fluctuating decline,with a total reduction of 60.16×104 t,and the overall carbon emission pattern was"low in the central part and high in the surrounding area".In Sichuan Province,the carbon emissions of breeding industry mainly came from livestock and poultry breeding and agricultural land use.In western Sichuan,livestock and poultry breeding were mainly dominant,while in southeast and northeast Sichuan,livestock and poultry breeding and agricultural land use were co-dominant.Carbon emission intensity,internal and external industrial structure and rural population inhibit carbon emission,while economic development level and urbanization promote carbon emission.In the next 10 years,carbon emissions from the breeding industry in Sichuan Province will continue to decline,and it is expected to decrease by 20.85×104 t,while agricultural land utilization will become the main carbon source.In the future,Sichuan's breeding industry should focus on the efficient use of agricultural materials and promote the low-carbon transformation of operation and management mode according to local conditions.关键词
碳排放/结构变化/LMDI模型/灰色预测Key words
carbon emissions/structural changes/LMDI model/gray prediction分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
韩宇,肖亚成,肖桑梦..四川省种养业碳排放时空演变、影响因素与趋势分析[J].环境保护科学,2024,50(6):110-118,9.基金项目
西南大学创新研究2035先导计划(SWUPilotPlan028) （SWUPilotPlan028）
