海洋预报2024，Vol.41Issue(6)：1-12,12.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2024.06.001
区域耦合预报系统的中国近海海面风场预报检验评估
Evaluation of sea surface wind field forecasts in offshore China form a regional coupled prediction system
摘要
Abstract
Utilizing observational data from the buoys in China's offshore areas,this work evaluates the forecast results of sea surface wind field from the Northwest Pacific regional coupled numerical prediction system developed by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center.The result shows that the 10 m wind field forecasts exhibit high performance across the entire China offshore region.There is a good consistency between the predicted and observed wind speed,with an absolute error in 24-hours forecasts less than 1.5 m/s.The forecast performance of the system decreases along with the prolong of the forecast lead time.The forecast performance of the system varies in different offshore areas.The East China Sea has the closest predicted wind speed and observed wind speed to the observations,whereas the South China Sea has the best fit between the predicted and observed wind speeds.However,as the forecast lead time extends,the dispersion of the forecasting deviation becomes larger,leading to a reduction in forecast skill.The 24-hour wind field forecast performance varies under different wind speeds.The system performance is higher under wind speed range of 4～6 m/s,and the prediction of wind direction is better under conditions of higher wind speeds.The forecast performance of the coupled system differs in different forecast months,with better performance in winter and relatively poor performance in summer.关键词
区域耦合预报系统/海面风场/检验评估/中国近海Key words
regional coupled prediction system/sea surface wind field/evaluation/offshore China分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
张可睿,李响,张蕴斐,龙上敏,陈幸荣..区域耦合预报系统的中国近海海面风场预报检验评估[J].海洋预报,2024,41(6):1-12,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3008005) （2023YFC3008005）
中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(202103460). （202103460）
