CMA-TYM对台风"杜苏芮"预报的综合评估与误差分析OA北大核心CSTPCD

Typhoon"Doksuri",the fifth typhoon in 2023,caused widespread flooding and damages in the eastern-northern regions of China,and this paper comprehensively evaluates the forecast performance and error status of this typhoon by utilizing the China Meteorological Administration_Regional Mesoscale Typhoon Numerical Prediction System(CMA-TYM).The results are as follows.The early stage of the typhoon track forecast is dominated by an easterly shift deviation;the middle and late stage of the forecast is dominated by a fast shift deviation.Forecasts tend to overestimate the typhoon intensity during its generation stage,however,at longer forecast horizons,the growth rate of the typhoon intensity during rapid intensification is predicted to be slower,resulting in significantly weaker forecasts of peak typhoon intensity.Errors in forecasting landfall time,intensity and location are small for forecasts up to 24 h in advance,and landfall location is still better for forecasts at 48 h in advance.Deviations in the forecasts of the subtropical high,the westerly trough,and another Typhoon"Khanun"during the same period are the reasons for the large deviations in the track forecasts.It is able to forecast the precipitation pattern of the typhoon process,but the forecast of precipitation in the main precipitation fallout area is less.As the forecast horizons increases,the precipitation center at sea as well as after landfall is shifted to the northeast.