海洋预报2024，Vol.41Issue(6)：32-43,12.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2024.06.004
宁波舟山港南大风时空分布特征及EC细网格模式评估
Characteristics analysis of temporal-spatial distribution and evaluation of EC forecasts for south gale in Ningbo-Zhoushan port
摘要
Abstract
Hourly and minute data from meteorological observations,sealing data provided by the port dispatch center and maritime bureau are used to discuss temporal-spatial distribution of south gale in Ningbo-Zhoushan port during 2013-2022,with emphasize on south gale processes,the associated weather situations,gust factors,as well as evaluation of 10 m wind forecasts from the EC fine model.The results show that there are 71 south gale processes in the 10 years under three weather situations,including depression move onto the sea(26 times),ground high back(26 times),and tropical cyclone(19 times).Gust factor of south gale in Ningbo-Zhoushan Port is 1.61,slightly higher than 1.5 of cold air mass and lower than 1.8 of abruptly severe convection.During south gale processes,the proportion of south-southeast wind direction is higher than that of southwest.Temporal distribution analysis reveals that south gale is most likely to occur in July-August followed by April-May,with high frequency in the evening while low frequency in the morning.As the wind speed grade increases,the total hour for each grade decreases gradually.Spatial distribution analysis reflects that stations with high frequency report of south gale locate in Zhoushan,the stations in Ningbo area are less affected by south gale which is suitable for production operation.Evaluation of the EC model reveals that the predicted wind speeds are lower than the observation,with the best performance under tropical cyclone(EM and ERMS for 12 h forecasts is-3.5 m/s and 4.9 m/s respectively),and the errors are relatively higher and the stability is relatively lower for the other two weather types.The EC forecasting performance in Ningbo is slightly better than that in Zhoushan,and the forecasting accuracy significant decreases from 72 h onward.The EC forecasts have the best performance for southeast wind direction.In addition,the wind direction forecasting stability in types of depression move onto the sea and ground high back are better than that of tropical cyclone.关键词
宁波舟山港/南大风/站点时空分布/天气分型/EC细网格预报评估/阵风系数Key words
Ningbo-Zhoushan port/south gale/temporal-spatial distribution of observations/weather situations/EC forecasts/gust factors分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
诸葛丰林,吕劲文,申华羽,王黉,王健捷..宁波舟山港南大风时空分布特征及EC细网格模式评估[J].海洋预报,2024,41(6):32-43,12.基金项目
浙江省"尖兵""领雁"研发攻关计划项目(2024C03256) （2024C03256）
浙江省气象科技计划项目(2021YB21) （2021YB21）
宁波市气象科技重点项目(NBQX2022002A). （NBQX2022002A）
