多源融合分析产品在辽宁地区的检验与适用性评估OACSTPCD
Validation and applicability assessment of multi-source integrated analysis products in Liaoning region
利用 2021 年 1-12 月辽宁省地面气象站资料,通过平均误差、平均绝对误差、均方根误差、准确率、相关系数、TS评分等指标,对国家级多源融合分析产品(0.05°×0.05°分辨率)进行评估,并选取2021 年两次暴雨大风天气过程对降水和风速产品进行检验分析.结果表明:降水、地面气温、相对湿度和风速4 种产品中,降水和气温产品整体表现优于相对湿度和风速产品,即更接近观测值.融合分析产品的质量受季节和地形的影响,春季风速产品误差大,夏季降水产品误差大,冬季气温产品误差大,山区及海陆交界处降水产品误差较大.在极端天气过程中,降水和风速产品表现稳定,三源融合降水效果优于二源融合降水,风速产品整体表现偏弱,风力越大误差越大.多源融合分析产品已经应用于辽宁省气象预报、预警、服务、信息等业务中.
Using data from surface meteorological stations in Liaoning province from January to December of 2021,this study evaluates national multi-source integrated analysis products(resolution of 0.05°×0.05°)using various indices including mean error,mean absolute error,root mean square error,accuracy,correlation coefficient,and TS score.Additionally,two severe weather events involving heavy rain and strong winds in 2021 were selected to specifically assess the precipitation and wind speed products.The results show that,among the four products,the precipitation and temperature products generally perform better than the relative humidity and wind speed products,aligning more closely with observed values.The quality of the integrated analysis products is influenced by season and terrain,with larger errors observed in wind speed products in spring,precipitation products in summer,and temperature products in winter,especially in mountainous areas and near coastal regions.During extreme weather events,the precipitation and wind speed products demonstrate stability,with three-source integrated precipitation outperforming two-source integration.However,wind speed products generally underperform,with larger errors oc-curring at higher wind speeds.Multi-source integrated analysis products are already being applied in meteorological forecasting,early warning,services,and information operations within Liaoning province.
于杨;于凡越;吴芳妮;隋东;朱晨
沈阳市气象局,辽宁 沈阳 100168辽宁省气象台,辽宁 沈阳 110166沈阳农业大学,辽宁 沈阳 110866沈阳市气象局,辽宁 沈阳 100168国家气象信息中心,北京 100081
大气科学
多源融合分析产品评估指标检验评估
Multi-source integrated analysis productsEvaluation indicesValidation and assessment
《气象与环境学报》 2024 (5)
84-91,8
辽宁省气象局科研课题(202107)资助.
评论