四川环境2024，Vol.43Issue(6)：73-80,8.DOI:10.14034/j.cnki.schj.2024.06.011
国土空间规划情景下市域土地利用变化预测及碳效应研究
Prediction of Land Use Change and Carbon Effect Study under Territorial Spatial Planning Scenario:A Study on Dazhou
刘雅雅 1李欣欣 1任茜 1黄中杰 1余向克1
作者信息
- 1. 四川省国土科学技术研究院(四川省卫星应用技术中心),成都 610000||自然资源部耕地资源调查监测与保护利用重点实验室,成都 610000||自然资源部成都平原国土生态与土地利用野外科学观测研究站,成都 610000
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摘要
Abstract
Territorial spatial planning is important for scientific and rational planning and using of limited land resources.In order to better play the role of territorial spatial planning in the regulation of territorial spatial pattern and optimal utilization of resources,Dazhou is taken as an example in this paper and two scenarios of land use changes are set by applying the CA-Markov model and the scenario prediction model to predict the land use structure change under the natural development scenario and the land spatial planning scenario of Dazhou in 2030.In addition,the carbon effect change caused by land use change in Dazhou under two scenarios was analyzed.The results show that the total carbon effect of the natural development scenario of Dazhou in 2030 will be 4.72 times that of the national spatial planning scenario.Under the national spatial planning scenario,the construction land area will be effectively controlled and the carbon emission will be significantly reduced.Therefore,the territorial spatial planning has a significant regulatory effect on the land use structure and carbon effect of Dazhou,which provides a decision-making reference for the sustainable development of Dazhou and a useful reference for similar areas in China.关键词
CA-Markov模型/情景预测/土地利用变化/碳效应/达州市Key words
CA-Markov model/scenario prediction/land use change/carbon effect/Dazhou分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
刘雅雅,李欣欣,任茜,黄中杰,余向克..国土空间规划情景下市域土地利用变化预测及碳效应研究[J].四川环境,2024,43(6):73-80,8.
