人民珠江2024，Vol.45Issue(12)：22-29,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2024.12.003
北江流域水文要素时空模拟及致灾成因分析
Spatio-Temporal Simulation of Hydrological Elements and Disaster Causes in Beijiang River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Soil saturation,coupled with intense rainfall can lead to severe flooding and geological disasters,and understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of hydrological elements within a given region is critical for effective disaster mitigation.The CREST distributed hydrological model,incorporating distributed parameters such as soil water capacity and saturated hydraulic conductivity,was used to simulate runoff processes in Beijiang River Basin from 2019 to 2022.The analysis focused on the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of precipitation,soil moisture,and runoff before and after the once-in-a-century flood that occurred on June 21,2022,and further explored the relationship among hydrological elements,landslides,and floods.The results show that the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients(NSEs)of the model are 0.84 and 0.82,and Pearson correlation coefficients(CCs)are 0.92 and 0.91,respectively,in the periodic and validation periods.The relative deviation is small,indicating that the CREST model has high simulation accuracy in the Beijiang River Basin.The results find that prior to the once-in-a-century flood event on June 21,2022,the soil moisture levels across the basin were generally high.As the precipitation continued,the soil approached full saturation,and downstream discharge exceeded 16 000 m3/s.After the flood,as precipitation decreased,both soil moisture and runoff levels dropped.A comparison between the simulated average soil moisture for 2022 and historical landslide locations reveals that areas with high kernel density of historical landslides overlap with regions with high soil moisture in the southeastern part of the basin.Comprehensively,the southeastern region,located downstream,faces a higher risk of combined flood and geological hazards during the flood season.关键词
分布式水文模型/水文要素时空分析/滑坡灾害/北江流域Key words
distributed hydrological model/spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological element/landslide disaster/Beijiang River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张康涛,雷卫东..北江流域水文要素时空模拟及致灾成因分析[J].人民珠江,2024,45(12):22-29,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划课题(2021YFC3001002) （2021YFC3001002）
深圳市科技计划项目(JCYJ20210324121402008) （JCYJ20210324121402008）
