同济大学学报（医学版）2024，Vol.45Issue(6)：851-858,8.DOI:10.12289/j.issn.2097-4345.24079
心力衰竭患者多次非计划性入院风险预测模型构建及验证
Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for multiple unplanned hospital admissions in patients with heart failure
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the risk factors of multiple unplanned admissions in patients with heart failure,and to construct and verify a risk prediction model.Methods A total of 498 patients with heart failure who were admitted to the Department of Cardiology of Nantong Sixth People's Hospital from January 2020 to October 2022 were selected by the convenient sampling method.The risk factors of multiple unplanned admissions were analyzed with logistic regression among 332 patients admitted from January 2020 to June 2021(training set),a risk prediction model was constructed.The prediction model was verified among 166 patients admitted from July 2021 to October 2022(validation set)with ROC curve.Results In training set,75 cases had multiple unplanned admission(22.59％).Logistic regression analysis showed that age＞70 years,history of atrial fibrillation,chronic kidney disease,COPD,NYHA class ≥Ⅲ,Hb＜110 g/L,and polypharmacy were independent risk factors of multiple unplanned hospital admission for heart failure.The area under the ROC curve of the final prediction model was 0.864(95％CI:0.802-0.925),the sensitivity was 90.8％,the specificity was 76.8％,and the maximum Youden index was 0.676.Conclusion The risk prediction model of multiple unplanned admission for heart failure constructed in this study has a good prediction effect,which may be used to identify high-risk patients and to intervene in time.关键词
心力衰竭/多次非计划性入院/危险因素/预测模型Key words
heart failure/multiple unplanned admissions/risk factors/prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
卢毅,顾宇重,杨青青,梁梦瑶,刘建云..心力衰竭患者多次非计划性入院风险预测模型构建及验证[J].同济大学学报（医学版）,2024,45(6):851-858,8.基金项目
南通市卫生健康委员会面上项目(MSZ2022053) （MSZ2022053）
