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贝叶斯分位数结构方程模型的变分近似推断OA北大核心CHSSCDCSSCICSTPCD

Variational Approximation Inference for Bayesian Quantile Structural Equation Models

中文摘要英文摘要

结构方程模型(SEM)是分析潜变量之间相互关系的重要工具.尽管分位数SEM(QSEM)在不同分位数下给出了潜变量和观测变量之间关系的全面分析,但是基于MCMC估计的计算效率并不高.为此,文章主要针对贝叶斯QSEM(BQSEM)的变分推断展开讨论.通过构建基于正则化先验的QSEM,分别给出QSEM和正则化QSEM(RQSEM)的变分后验估计(MFVB_QSEM和MFVB_RQSEM),并基于Bootstrap方法改进后验方差估计.模拟结果表明,该变分推断在提供可靠性推断的同时,推断速度显著快于MCMC估计.将其用于我国上市公司资本结构决定因素的研究,结果表明,中国上市公司资本结构的决定因素在各分位数上表现出不同的影响,其中,盈利能力和流动性是最重要的决定因素.

Structural equation model(SEM)is an important tool for analyzing the relationship between latent variables.Al-though quantile SEM(QSEM)provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between latent and observed variables at dif-ferent quantiles,the computational efficiency based on MCMC estimation is not high.In view of this,the paper mainly discusses variational inference for Bayesian QSEM(BQSEM).A QSEM based on regularized priors is constructed,and the variational poste-rior estimates of the QSEM and the regularized QSEM(RQSEM)are given(MFVB_QSEM and MFVB_RQSEM),respectively.The variance estimation of posterior distribution is improved by using a Bootstrap method.Simulation results show that this variational inference is significantly faster than MCMC estimation while providing reliability inference.Furthermore,when it is applied to study the determinants of capital structure in Chinese listed companies,the research results show that the determinants of the capi-tal structure of Chinese listed companies exhibit different impacts across different quantiles,with profitability and liquidity being the most important determinants.

薛娇;高海燕

兰州财经大学 统计与数据科学学院,兰州 730020兰州财经大学 统计与数据科学学院,兰州 730020||兰州财经大学 甘肃省数字经济与社会计算科学重点实验室,兰州 730020

数学

非对称Laplace分布分位数结构方程模型变分近似推断

asymmetric Laplace distributionquantile structural equation modelvariational approximation inference

《统计与决策》 2024 (024)

29-35 / 7

甘肃省科技厅软科学专项(23JRZA438);甘肃省教育厅高校教师创新基金项目(2024A-076);兰州财经大学博士研究生科研创新项目(2022D02);兰州财经大学科研项目(Lzufe2024C-001)

10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2024.24.005

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