天文学进展2024，Vol.42Issue(4)：656-668,13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-8349.2024.04.08
空间碎片激光测距中轨道偏差的非线性传播
Orbital Uncertainty Nonlinear Propagation for Space Debris Laser Ranging
摘要
Abstract
In laser ranging of space debris,the success rate is often low due to significant orbit prediction errors.To address this,a method that combines the unscented transfor-mation technique with the Gaussian Mixture Model to propagate the orbital uncertainty of space debris is proposed.This approach yields the debris's state moments(generally mean and covariance matrix)or probability density function(PDF)at their terminal time,thereby providing a robust foundation for laser ranging.First,typical orbits in current laser rang-ing of space debris are selected to establish initial orbit uncertainty.Then,the unscented transformation method is utilized to nonlinearly predict the mean and covariance matrix of this uncertainty.Subsequently,the Gaussian Mixture Model is employed to approximate the probability density function of the uncertainty,and the results are converted into the station coordinate system centered on the station.The outcomes align with those derived from the Monte Carlo method:the absolute error of predicted range remains within 20 m,while the errors in azimuth and elevation angles do not surpass 2 arc seconds.Furthermore,the predicted probability density function curve closely mirrors the Monte Carlo simulation results,and the computational time efficiency is enhanced by over one hundred times.This demonstrates that the method not only offers high-precision uncertainty prediction but al-so furnishes a reliable foundation for subsequent laser ranging.Additionally,it effectively mitigates the substantial computational demands associated with Monte Carlo simulations.关键词
激光测距/偏差演化/轨道预报/无迹变换/高斯混合模型Key words
laser ranging/uncertainty propagation/orbit prediction/unscented transfor-mation/Gaussian mixture model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张利军,舒鹏,李荣旺,李语强..空间碎片激光测距中轨道偏差的非线性传播[J].天文学进展,2024,42(4):656-668,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC2203800) （2022YFC2203800）
国家自然科学基金(12303082,12293034) （12303082,12293034）
云南省"兴滇英才支持计划"青年人才专项 （）
国家资助博士后研究人员计划(GZC20232975) （GZC20232975）
