生态环境学报2024，Vol.33Issue(12)：1874-1881,8.DOI:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2024.12.005
陕西省新型城镇化与生态环境耦合关系及情景预测
Coupling Relationship between New Urbanization and Ecological Environment in Shaanxi Province and Scenario Prediction
摘要
Abstract
New urbanization and the ecological environment are two systems that affect each other.If not coordinated,they can cause a series of ecological and environmental problems.Research on the coupling relationship between new urbanization and the eco-environment in Shaanxi Province and scenario prediction has important reference significance for the coupling coordination between these factors.Using Shaanxi Province as the study area,social panel data and remote sensing data were combined to establish an evaluation index system for new urbanization and the ecological environment.The coupling coordination degree model was used to analyze the coupling relationship between new urbanization and the ecological environment in Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2020,and the spatial autocorrelation model was used to explore the spatial differentiation law of the coupling coordination between these factors.This study innovatively uses a system dynamics model to explore the optimal development path of the coupling coordination level between new urbanization and the ecological environment in Shaanxi Province.The results showed that 1)the coupling coordination degree of Shaanxi Province is on the rise from 2010 to 2020,and it has experienced a development process from near imbalance to intermediate coupling coordination.In 2020,Xi'an had the highest coupling coordination degree(0.771),and Shangluo had the lowest coupling coordination degree(0.571).The lag in new urbanization is an important factor restricting the synchronous development of new urbanization and the ecological environment.2)From 2010 to 2020,the global Moran's I index changed from-0.204 to 0.369,and the coupling coordination degree had a significant negative spatial correlation with global autocorrelation.Local spatial autocorrelation showed a discrete distribution trend,in which the HL-type region was represented by Xi'an and Tongchuan,and the LH-type region was represented by Shangluo,Weinan,and Hanzhong.3)Collaborative development is the best development plan for the Shaanxi Province.When the growth rate of permanent resident population is controlled at 0.006,the GDP growth rate is controlled at 0.055,the growth rate of built-up area is controlled at 0.062,the general fiscal expenditure is controlled at 0.320,the reduction rate of water consumption is controlled at-0.025,the current cultivated land scale is maintained,and the environmental protection expenditure coefficient is increased to 0.043,In this scenario,the coupling coordination degree will be 0.883 by 2025.The research results provide a reference for the coordination between new urbanization and the ecological environment in Shaanxi Province and other cities.关键词
新型城镇化/生态环境/耦合关系/空间自相关/系统动力学模型/陕西省Key words
new urbanization/ecological environment/coupling relationship/spatial autocorrelation/system dynamics model/Shaanxi分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
耿雅妮,吴韬,姜培钊,张腾飞..陕西省新型城镇化与生态环境耦合关系及情景预测[J].生态环境学报,2024,33(12):1874-1881,8.基金项目
陕西省社科界重大理论与现实问题研究项目(2020Z042) （2020Z042）
宝鸡文理学院校级研究生创新科研项目(YJSCX24YB55) （YJSCX24YB55）
