消费者预购估值不确定风险下零售商预售模式的选择及决策OA北大核心CHSSCDCSSCICSTPCD

With the development of e-commerce,pre-sale,as an effective sales strategy,has been widely used in retail industries such as new products and short-life cycle products.However,pre-sales are a double-edged sword for consumers.Although pre-sales can provide consumers with the opportunity to pre-order products,and pre-sales are usually accompanied by some preferential activities,during the pre-sale period,consumers have not yet seen the physical product or experienced the real product.Consumers are faced with the risk of uncertainty in the valuation of pre-ordered products,which will further affect consumer pre-order behavior and retailers'revenue.In order to reduce the impact of uncertainty in the valuation of pre-sale products and improve consumer satisfaction,many retailers provide full refund services for pre-sale products or provide consumers with some new pre-sale models,such as deposit inflation and the offline experience+pre-sale mode.These new pre-sale models are designed to solve consumers'valuation uncertainty,so that consumers can wait until the valuation is confirmed before completing the pre-order order,reducing consumers'pre-order risk.Therefore,how to choose an appropriate pre-sale model and determine the optimal pre-sale price and order quantity is an important issue that retailers face when formulating pre-sale strategies. This paper considers the current mode of deposit inflation and offline experience+pre-sale adopted by retailers in online pre-sales,and the situation where retailers provide returns for pre-ordered products at the risk of uncertain valuation of consumers'pre-orders.Aiming at the retailer's pre-sale period and current sale period,this paper discusses the choice of three pre-sale models for retailers when consumer valuation is uncertain.The first is a discounted pre-sale that provides a full refund service;the other two models are for consumers to complete the pre-order after the valuation is confirmed:deposit inflation and the"offline experience+pre-sale"model.And we analyze the retailer's optimal pre-sale price and order quantity decision-making problem.The consumer's purchase process is described by constructing the consumer utility function,and the retailer's profit model is constructed for three situations,and the optimal order quantity and pre-sale price of the retailer under the three pre-sale modes are solved by using the newsboy model and K-T conditions.And we analyze the impact of consumer risk aversion,retailer's net loss due to product returns and consumer experience product trouble cost on retailer's pre-sale decision and pre-sale model selection,so as to provide guidance for retailers to formu-late product pre-sale strategies. The research shows that consumers and retailers have high costs due to returns,compared with deposit infla-tion and the offline experience+pre-sale sales model.When a retailer implements a discounted pre-sale model that allows returns,it should set a relatively high pre-sale price to make up for the losses caused by consumers'returns.The choice of the retailer's pre-sale mode is related to the construction cost of the experience store and the product out-of-stock rate during the regular sale period.There is a threshold for the construction cost of an experience store.If the retailer adopts the offline experience+pre-sale model and the construction cost of the experience store is high,the retailer should abandon the offline experience+pre-sale sales model and choose a discounted pre-sale model that allows full refunds or a deposit-inflated pre-sale model.When consumers'risk aversion is low and they don't care too much about the uncertainty of product valuation,they can pre-order on-line without having to experience the product.Therefore,at this time,under the offline experience+pre-sale model,retailers should lower the pre-sale price to attract consumers to pre-order.When consumers have high risk aversion,they will prefer to experience the product before purchasing the product.At this time,retailers can take the opportunity to improve the pre-sale price of the offline experience+pre-sale model to increase the gross profit margin.