2014-2023年湖南省0～14岁儿童肺结核流行特征及变化趋势OA北大核心
The epidemiological characteristics and trends of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 years in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2023
目的:分析2014-2023年湖南省0～14岁儿童肺结核发病的流行病学特征及变化趋势,为湖南省制定和调整0～14岁儿童肺结核疫情防控政策提供参考依据.方法:从"传染病监测系统"中收集2014-2023年湖南省0～14岁儿童肺结核的监测数据资料,分析研究期间0～14岁儿童肺结核的流行病学特征,并采用Joinpoint回归模型对发病趋势进行分析.结果:2014-2023年湖南省0～14岁儿童肺结核累计报告3350例,年均报告发病率为2.64/10万,报告发病率从2014年的1.80/10万(220例)上升到2023年的3.19/10万(384例),发病情况总体呈上升趋势(x2趋势=82.928,P＜0.001);男童、女童年均报告发病率分别为2.46/10万(1691例)和2.85/10万(1659例),女童的报告发病率高于男童,差异有统计学意义(x2=17.870,P＜0.001).Joinpoint回归分析显示,2014-2023年湖南省0～14岁儿童肺结核报告发病率总体呈上升趋势,年均上升5.759％(AAPC=5.759％,95％CI:0.245％～11.577％;t=2.411,P=0.042);女童变化趋势与全部儿童相似,年均上升7.511％(AAPC=7.511％,95％CI:0.471％～15.044％;t=2.466,P=0.039);男童变化趋势差异无统计学意义(AAPC=4.066％,95％CI:-0.548％～8.893％;t=2.027,P=0.077).病原学阳性患者累计报告1030例,占全部儿童肺结核报告患者的30.75％(1030/3350);病原学检查阳性患者的构成比从2014年的21.82％(48/220)上升到2023年的41.41％(159/384),呈现逐年上升的趋势(x2趋势=139.436,P＜0.001).病例报告最多的月份为10月(12.21％,409/3350),全年报告病例主要集中在7～10月份(44.99％,1507/3350).结论:2014-2023年湖南省0～14岁儿童肺结核报告发病率总体呈上升趋势,病原学阳性患者例数也在逐年上升.应继续加大主动监测力度,结合各地区儿童肺结核实际发病情况调整防控策略.
Objective:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 years in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2023,and to provide references for the formulation and adjustment of pediatric tuberculosis prevention and control policies.Methods:The surveillance data of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 years in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2023 were collected from the Infectious Disease Surveillance System.The epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 years were analyzed during the study period,and the incidence trend was analyzed using Joinpoint regression model.Results:From 2014 to 2023,a total of 3350 cases of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 were reported cumulatively in Hunan Province,with an average annual reported incidence rate of 2.64/100 000,and the reported incidence rate increased from 1.80/100 000(220 cases)in 2014 to 3.19/100 000(384 cases)in 2023,with an overall upward trend(x2trend=82.928,P＜0.001).The average annual incidence was 2.46/100 000(1691 cases)in boys and 2.85/100 000(1659 cases)in girls,and the reported incidence for girls was higher than those for boys,with a statistically significant difference(x2=17.870,P＜0.001).The reported incidence of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2023 showed an overall upward trend in Joinpoint regression analysis,with an average annual increase of 5.759％(AAPC=5.759％,95％CI:0.245％-11.577％,t=2.411,P=0.042).The variation tendency of girls was similar to that of all children,with an average annual increase of 7.511％(AAPC=7.511％,95％CI:0.471％-15.044％,t=2.466,P=0.039),and there was no statistically significant difference in the trend for boys(AAPC=4.066％,95％CI:-0.548％-8.893％,t=2.027,P=0.077).A total of 1030 cases with positive etiological test were reported,accounting for 30.75％(1030/3350)of all reported pediatric tuberculosis cases.The proportion of etiology positive tests increased from 21.82％in 2014(48/220)to 41.41％in 2023(159/384),showing a yearly increasing trend(x2trend=139.436,P＜0.001).The most cases were reported in October(12.21％,409/3350),and the cases reported throughout the year were mainly concentrated in July-October(44.99％,1507/3350).Conclusion:From 2014 to 2023,the reported incidence of tuberculosis among children aged 0-14 years in Hunan Province generally showed an upward trend,and the number of cases with etiology positive also increased year by year.The active surveillance efforts should be continued,and the prevention and control strategies should be adjusted in combination with the actual incidence of tuberculosis among children in various regions.
梁麟龙;裴异;周海依;谢齐放;张锋;江杰;刘富强
南华大学附属长沙市中心医院儿科,长沙 410004||长沙市儿童结核病技术创新中心,长沙 410004湖南省结核病诊疗临床医疗技术示范基地,长沙 410004||南华大学附属长沙市中心医院肺六科,长沙 410004南华大学附属长沙市中心医院儿科,长沙 410004||长沙市儿童结核病技术创新中心,长沙 410004南华大学附属长沙市中心医院儿科,长沙 410004||长沙市儿童结核病技术创新中心,长沙 410004南华大学附属长沙市中心医院儿科,长沙 410004||长沙市儿童结核病技术创新中心,长沙 410004南华大学附属长沙市中心医院儿科,长沙 410004||长沙市儿童结核病技术创新中心,长沙 410004||湖南省结核病诊疗临床医疗技术示范基地,长沙 410004湖南省疾病预防控制中心科教科,长沙 410153
临床医学
结核儿童流行病学研究模型,统计学
TuberculosisChildEpidemiologic studiesModels,statistical
《中国防痨杂志》 2025 (1)
29-35,7
湖南省自然科学基金(2023JJ60405)长沙市指导性科技计划项目(kzd22073)长沙市中心医院科技计划重点项目(YNKY202303) Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2023JJ60405)Changsha Guiding Science and Technology Plan Project(kzd22073)Key Project of Changsha Central Hospital Technology Plan(YNKY202303)
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