中国舰船研究2024，Vol.19Issue(z2)：90-99,10.DOI:10.19693/j.issn.1673-3185.03738
基于层次模型的极地船舶-冰山碰撞风险评估
Hierarchical model-based risk assessment of polar ship-iceberg collision
董海波 1卞鑫 1柴威 2刘俊杰 1李政杰 1赵南1
作者信息
- 1. 中国船舶科学研究中心,江苏 无锡 214082||深海技术科学太湖实验室,江苏 无锡 214082||船舶结构安全全国重点实验室,江苏 无锡 214082
- 2. 武汉理工大学 船海与能源动力工程学院,湖北 武汉 430063
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]In order to ensure the navigation safety of polar ships,ship-iceberg collision risk as-sessment is carried out in typical sea areas.[Methods]Considering the scenario of a ship sailing in the Bar-ents Sea,this study constructs a hierarchical model of ship-iceberg collision on the basis of identifying the risk influencing factors,then proposes an improved method for determining the factor weight coefficient.Com-bined with a fuzzy evaluation of factors,a comprehensive approach to calculating risks is developed.The colli-sion risk is then calculated and assessed using the method in this paper in combination with expert opinions.[Results]The risk of ship-iceberg collision in the Barents Sea is slightly higher than the medium level,and the three main factors behind the collision risk are the iceberg conditions,human error and the ship itself.[Conclusion]When polar ships sail in the Barents Sea,attention should be paid to the potential danger posed by icebergs,and the necessary control measures should be taken to avoid collision.关键词
风险评估/层次分析法/碰撞/专家意见/模糊数Key words
risk assessment/analytic hierarchy process/collision/expert opinion/fuzzy number分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
董海波,卞鑫,柴威,刘俊杰,李政杰,赵南..基于层次模型的极地船舶-冰山碰撞风险评估[J].中国舰船研究,2024,19(z2):90-99,10.
