灾害学2025，Vol.40Issue(1)：16-21,101,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2025.01.003
未来气候情景下高寒区水稻延迟型冷害演变特征研究
A Study on the Change Characteristics of Delayed Growth-type Rice Cold Damage in Very Cold Regions under Future Climate Scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Based on the simulated daily temperature data from regional Climate Model BCC-CSM 1.0 in China,and by using the indicators of anomalies(ΔT)of temperature during May to September of national standards,delayed growth-type rice cold damage under the RCP4.5 scenario from 2024 to 2060 is identified and its evolution characteristics are ana-lyzed.The results show that the daily average temperature data simulated by BCC-CSM 1.0 is reliable for studying delayed growth-type rice cold damage;The number of years of delayed growth-type rice cold damage is 5～12 years in the study area during 2024 to 2060,and cold damage shows a decreasing trend.The frequency of cold damage is very high from 2024 to 2030 as well as 2030s,it is low in the 2040s,and there is no cold damage in the 2050s.Compared with the benchmark period(1969-2005),the sum of years of cold damage had significantly decreased in the study area;The frequency of de-layed growth-type rice cold damage generally shows a spatial distribution of less in the north and more in the south,and the frequency of cold damage rangs from 13.5%to 32.3%.The high-frequency area is located in the eastern of Harbin,south-ern of Jixi,and Mudanjiang,while the low-frequency area centers in Qiqihar and Daqing of the western of the study area.Compared with the benchmark period(1969-2005),the high-frequency area of cold damage shows a characteristic of shrinking southward and moving eastward.There are differences in the occurrence range of different degrees of cold damage in the study area from 2024 to 2060,and the IOC value shows a"bouncing"fluctuation.The occurrence range of cold damage in 2024,2026,2028,2029,2030,2031,2033,2035,2036,2046,and 2049 is relatively large,and IOC value is above 0.42,compared to the benchmark period(1969-2005),the number of years increased which IOC value is 0,while the number of years decreased which IOC value is above 0.50.关键词
水稻/延迟型冷害/冷害演变特征/高寒区/BCC-CSM 1.0模拟Key words
rice/delayed growth-type cold damage/evolution characteristics of cold damage/very cold region/BCC-CSM 1.0 simulation分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
韩俊杰,石红艳,初征,翟墨,那荣波,季生太,何锋,庞云超,姜丽霞..未来气候情景下高寒区水稻延迟型冷害演变特征研究[J].灾害学,2025,40(1):16-21,101,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目课题"东北玉米水稻低温冷害监测评估及预警预测研究"(2022YFD2300201) （2022YFD2300201）
中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所联合开放基金课题(2022SYIAEKFZD04-02) （2022SYIAEKFZD04-02）
黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(LH2022D024) （LH2022D024）
国家自然科学基金项目(31671575) （31671575）
