未来气候情景下高寒区水稻延迟型冷害演变特征研究OA北大核心

Based on the simulated daily temperature data from regional Climate Model BCC-CSM 1.0 in China,and by using the indicators of anomalies(ΔT)of temperature during May to September of national standards,delayed growth-type rice cold damage under the RCP4.5 scenario from 2024 to 2060 is identified and its evolution characteristics are ana-lyzed.The results show that the daily average temperature data simulated by BCC-CSM 1.0 is reliable for studying delayed growth-type rice cold damage;The number of years of delayed growth-type rice cold damage is 5～12 years in the study area during 2024 to 2060,and cold damage shows a decreasing trend.The frequency of cold damage is very high from 2024 to 2030 as well as 2030s,it is low in the 2040s,and there is no cold damage in the 2050s.Compared with the benchmark period(1969-2005),the sum of years of cold damage had significantly decreased in the study area;The frequency of de-layed growth-type rice cold damage generally shows a spatial distribution of less in the north and more in the south,and the frequency of cold damage rangs from 13.5%to 32.3%.The high-frequency area is located in the eastern of Harbin,south-ern of Jixi,and Mudanjiang,while the low-frequency area centers in Qiqihar and Daqing of the western of the study area.Compared with the benchmark period(1969-2005),the high-frequency area of cold damage shows a characteristic of shrinking southward and moving eastward.There are differences in the occurrence range of different degrees of cold damage in the study area from 2024 to 2060,and the IOC value shows a"bouncing"fluctuation.The occurrence range of cold damage in 2024,2026,2028,2029,2030,2031,2033,2035,2036,2046,and 2049 is relatively large,and IOC value is above 0.42,compared to the benchmark period(1969-2005),the number of years increased which IOC value is 0,while the number of years decreased which IOC value is above 0.50.