灾害学2025，Vol.40Issue(1)：74-79,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2025.01.012
基于蒙特卡罗法的黄土滑坡概率与可靠度分析
Probability and Reliability Analysis of Loess Landslide Based on Monte-Carlo Method:Taking Chaoyanglu Landslide at Yulin City as an Example
摘要
Abstract
Based on the Monte Carlo method for calculating landslide probabilities,the typical loess landslide(Chaoyanglu landslide at Yulin City)in the loess Plateau area is taken as the research object.Through detailed field investigation,laboratory test and comprehensive research,the safety factor distribution,instability probability and reliability of Chaoyanglu landslide under various conditions of loess cohesion and internal friction angle are ana-lyzed.The influence of parameter correlation on landslide reliability is discussed,and the sensitivity of stability to cohesion and internal friction angle is analyzed.The results show that Chaoyanglu landslide is a typical rainfall-induced landslide in the Loess Plateau.When considering the simultaneous change of cohesion and internal friction angle,the landslide reliability index is 1.35,the instability probability is 8.83%,the minimum safety coefficient is 0.794,and the maximum safety coefficient is 1.305.Compared with a single variable,the calculated reliability index decreases significantly,the standard deviation increases significantly,and the probability of landslide instabil-ity is higher when multiple variables are considered.The probability of landslide instability,reliability and standard deviation of safety factor calculated under different parameter correlation conditions are different.The sensitivity of landslide stability coefficient to different soil property parameters is different.Finally,based on the above results,the corresponding prevention and control measures of Chaoyanglu landslide are put forward.The research results can provide reference for engineering control,prediction and warning and risk assessment of similar landslides in the Loess Plateau.关键词
黄土滑坡/蒙特卡罗/失稳概率/可靠度/相关性Key words
loess landslide/Monte Carlo/instability probability/reliability/correlation分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
黄立新,李成,郭伟龙..基于蒙特卡罗法的黄土滑坡概率与可靠度分析[J].灾害学,2025,40(1):74-79,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目"基于滑带土水文动态响应的黄土滑坡地貌演化预测模型研究"(42201011) （42201011）
