灾害学2025，Vol.40Issue(1)：92-101,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2025.01.015
副热带高压控制下一次极端暴雨成因分析及成功预警
The Cause Analysis and Successful Early Warning of an Extreme Rainstorm Controlled by Subtropical High
摘要
Abstract
On October 8th,2022,a historic extreme rainstorm hit Mangnuo Township in Shuangjiang County,Lin-cang City,with a maximum hourly rainfall of 57.2mm.The cause of this rainstorm is revealed through the comprehensive analysis of high-altitude observations,regional automatic weather station measurements,ERA5 reanalysis data,FY-2G satellite imagery,Doppler weather radar information and other data.①The large-scale circulation background of this pro-cess is the heavy rainfall triggered by the mesoscale system under the control of the strong subtropical high.②During heavy rainfall,the atmosphere is unstable,there are warm and wet bottom layer and dry and cold upper layer,low lifting conden-sation height and free convection height;The occurrence of heavy rainfall corresponds to the high value of water vapor trans-port and water vapor convergence,the low-level convergence and the mid-high-level divergence,and coexists with the strong vertical rising movement.③The two periods of heavy correspond to different radar echo characteristics.In the initial period,there is no large-scale rainfall echo,and there is a medium γ scale convection echo locally;The range of rainfall echo in the next period expands,forming a train effect.④The topography of Mangnuo Township and the east-south flow at low level play a key role in triggering and maintaining the mesoscale convective system.⑤The"1262"service mode has is-sued warnings in advance,which has effectively warned of heavy rainfall at night and avoided casualties,becoming a suc-cessful case of early warning linkage.关键词
极端暴雨/副热带高压/中尺度系统/临沧市/递进式气象服务Key words
extreme rainstorm/subtropical high/mesoscale system/Lincang/progressive meteorological service分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
郭萍,段绍玲,郑建萌,张万诚,陈静,杨宏庆..副热带高压控制下一次极端暴雨成因分析及成功预警[J].灾害学,2025,40(1):92-101,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42075013) （42075013）
国家可持续发展示范区科技专项"临沧市大气污染源监测解析研究及大气污染预报预警系统开发"(202104AC100001-A14) （202104AC100001-A14）
云南重点研发计划-社会发展专项(202203AC100006) （202203AC100006）
