灾害学2025，Vol.40Issue(1)：110-116,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2025.01.017
从镇雄1.22山体滑坡事件浅析冬季滑坡伤亡事件规律
Brief Analysis on the Regular Pattern of Winter Landslide Casualties from Zhenxiong 1.22 Landslide Incident
摘要
Abstract
A serious landslide casualty occurred in January 2024 in Zhenxiong,Yunnan Province.Given the similarity of its location and season to the event 13 years ago,it triggered a discussion on whether winter is prone to landslide disasters in the neighborhood.In this study,based on the landslide casualty events in China from 2013 to 2021,the distribution pattern of peripheral winter landslide casualty events in the spatial and tempo-ral dimensions is analyzed.Meteorological characteristics of winter events are collected and preliminarily ana-lyzed.The results show that at least eight landslide casualty events are recorded in Zhenxiong County,but the peak of landslides in the country and Yunnan Province is mostly during the summer flood season.Winter landslides occurred mostly in the central-south and northwestern regions,especially in the northwestern part of china.Meteo-rological analyses show that rain and snow have a significant impact along with a brief warming of temperatures prior to the disaster.Comparing the two events in 2024 and 2013,the terrain,bedrock and pre-disaster weather are similar,but the landslide size,impact area and material are different.关键词
历史滑坡伤亡事件/镇雄滑坡/冬季滑坡/分布规律Key words
historical landslide casualties/Zhenxiong landslide/winter landslide/distribution pattern分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
黄远东,许冲,薛智文,胡杰,郭永翔,付登文..从镇雄1.22山体滑坡事件浅析冬季滑坡伤亡事件规律[J].灾害学,2025,40(1):110-116,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于完整长时序同震滑坡大数据和深度学习的地震滑坡真实概率评价和预警模型研究"(42077259)和应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院基本科研业务专项"地震降雨地质灾害链机理与评估"(2023-JBKY57) （42077259）
