国际石油经济2024，Vol.32Issue(12)：72-78,85,8.
中国汽柴油市场需求发展趋势分析
Analysis of the development trend of China's gasoline and diesel market demand
韩冰 1刘生瑶 2齐超1
作者信息
- 1. 中国石油天然气股份有限公司销售分公司
- 2. 中国华油集团有限公司
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
After analyzing the short-,medium-and long-term factors affecting China's gasoline demand,the paper predicts that 2024 will be the first year after gasoline demand peaks and gasoline demand will drop by 1.8%compared with the previous year,the rate of decline will accelerate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period and the actual demand will drop by 27.8%in 2030 compared with that in 2023 with an average annual decline of 4.5%,the rate of decline in gasoline demand will be faster in the south than in the north in the short term and slower in the south than in the north in the long term.After analyzing those factors of China's diesel fuel demand,it forecasts that the diesel fuel demand will decrease by 5.9%in 2024 compared with that of the previous year;it will decrease by 27.2%in 2030 compared with that of 2023 and the demand for diesel fuel will be in the condition that the decrease in the north will be faster than that in the south in the long-term.It is recommended that market players make such following key adjustments to the analysis of the diesel oil market as adjusting the previous industry evaluation and analysis background of"upward or stable cycle"to"stable cycle with appropriate downward fluctuation",developing markets by different region and stage according to their characteristics,and increasing the weights of index of new energy,non-oil businesses,and digital transformation.关键词
汽柴油市场/汽油需求/柴油需求/成品油替代/需求预测Key words
gasoline and diesel market/gasoline demand/diesel demand/refined oil substitution/demand forecast分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
韩冰,刘生瑶,齐超..中国汽柴油市场需求发展趋势分析[J].国际石油经济,2024,32(12):72-78,85,8.
