摘要
Abstract
Exploring the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and future trends of land use carbon emissions,is of great significance for the optimization of land use structure,the formulation of emission reduction policies and the development of regional low-carbon economy.Hebei Province was employed in this study for analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use carbon emissions,via various land use data and energy consumption data in Hebei Province from 1995 to 2020.The multi methods were used in this study to predict the change trend of carbon emissions in Hebei Province from 2021 to 2030,such as the land use transition matrix,land dynamic attitude,standard deviation ellipse model and grey correlation degree,and the ARIMA model.The results showed that:1)The area of forest land and construction land showed an increasing trend,while the area of cultivated land,grassland,water area and unused land showed a decreasing trend from 1995 to 2020.2)During the same period,the carbon emissions of land use in Hebei Province showed an increasing trend,the carbon emission in the southern and eastern Hebei Province were higher but lower in the northern and western part.3)From 1995 to 2020,the grey correlation degree between land use carbon emissions and land use types was highest in construction land,and then followed in sequence by cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water area and unused land.4)As the prediction results by the land use carbon emission prediction model,the net carbon emissions of land use in Hebei Province will increase from 860.39 million tons in 2021 to 1 041.52 million tons in 2030.关键词
河北省/土地利用/碳排放/ARIMA模型/灰色关联度Key words
Hebei Province/land use/carbon emissions/ARIMA model/grey relevance分类
资源环境
