人民黄河2025，Vol.47Issue(1)：154-160,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.01.025
考虑人口分布和天气影响的溃坝洪水应急避难选址研究
Study on Emergency Shelter Location of Dam-Break Flood Considering Population Distribution and Weather Influence
摘要
Abstract
Due to the insufficient consideration of population distribution differences in existing site selection research,as well as the difficul-ty in meeting the needs of population refuge under the condition of dam-break floods,the site selection plan is insufficient.The population distribution was simulated by using land-use and land-cover change(LUCC)and nighttime light data,and the number and distribution of the affected population were determined based on the simulation results of dam-break floods.On the basis of screening qualified candidate shel-ters,the effective capacity and accessibility information under normal weather and extreme rainfall conditions were analyzed and quantified.A multi-objective site selection model was built by comprehensively considering factors such as population transfer efficiency,construction cost and capacity limitations of shelters.The NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm was used to solve the final site selection plan.The method was applied to the Dafangying Reservoir in Hefei City,Anhui Province.The results show that the overall average relative error(MRE)of population simulation for 35 downstream streets is 11.16％,which has high fitting precision and can truly reflect the distribution of population.The number of quali-fied refuge candidate shelters screened under normal weather scenarios is 352,and the number of refuge sites retained under extreme rainfall weather is 266.Population distribution and weather factors have significant effects on the choice of refuge.The population distribution and weather factors have a significant impact on the selection of shelters and the allocation of evacuees.关键词
溃坝洪水/人口分布/天气因素/应急转移/避难选址Key words
dam-failure floods/population distribution/weather factors/emergency transfer/shelters selection分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李巍,衣建妮,葛巍,焦余铁..考虑人口分布和天气影响的溃坝洪水应急避难选址研究[J].人民黄河,2025,47(1):154-160,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52079127,52179144,U2040224,51234567) （52079127,52179144,U2040224,51234567）
中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2023M731259) （2023M731259）
河南省自然科学基金资助项目(232300421067) （232300421067）
河南省高校科技创新人才计划项目(22HASTIT011) （22HASTIT011）
