饲料研究2024，Vol.47Issue(23)：179-182,4.DOI:10.13557/j.cnki.issn1002-2813.2024.23.033
中国豆粕价格对鸡肉价格的非线性传导机制研究——基于LSTR模型的实证分析
Study on nonlinear transmission mechanism of soybean meal prices to chicken prices in China:An empirical analysis based on LSTR model
摘要
Abstract
Soybean meal is the main raw material for livestock and poultry feed,and its price fluctuation have a certain impact on chicken prices.Based on the monthly price data of soybean meal and chicken from December 2012 to December 2023,this paper empirically tests the dynamic adjustment process between soybean meal and chicken prices by using a smooth transition autoregressive model.The results showed that there was a mutual influence between the prices of soybean meal and chicken,and this effect switched between linear and nonlinear regions.When the change in lagged first-order soybean meal prices was greater than-0.033 and less than 0.085,the model was in a nonlinear form;on the contrary,it was in a linear form.When the prices of chicken lagged below-0.039 for the first order,the model took a linear form.On the contrary,it was in a nonlinear form.In both linear and nonlinear systems,soybean meal prices had an obvious influence on chicken prices,and chicken prices were more affected by their own changes.Factors such as supply and demand of the industrial chain and animal husbandry policies are important reasons for the nonlinear relationship between soybean meal and chicken prices.The results show that there are both linear and nonlinear interactive effects between soybean meal prices and chicken prices.关键词
豆粕价格/鸡肉价格/平滑转移自回归模型/非线性关系Key words
soybean meal prices/chicken prices/smooth transition autoregressive model/nonlinear relationship分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
魏亚鹏..中国豆粕价格对鸡肉价格的非线性传导机制研究——基于LSTR模型的实证分析[J].饲料研究,2024,47(23):179-182,4.基金项目
2022年度河南省社科联调研项目(项目编号:SKL-2021-2482) （项目编号:SKL-2021-2482）
