水土保持研究2025，Vol.32Issue(2)：61-71,11.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.02.042
变化环境下黑河上游径流演变规律分析
Runoff evolution pattern under the changing environment in the upper reaches of Heihe River
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Runoff is an important water resource in the arid area of northwest China.The aims of this study are to analyze changing characteristics of runoff and influencing factors,and to understand the pattern of river hydrological change under the background of climate change.[Methods]The upper reaches of the Heihe River was taken as the research area.The upper reaches of the Heihe River was mainly zoned primarily based on the watershed controlled by hydrological stations.Based on the runoff and precipitation of each hydrological station in the upper reaches of the Heihe River,and a variety of methods of the cumulative anomaly,Mann-Kendall test,and double cumulative curve,the evolution pattern of runoff under the background of climate change was discussed.[Results]From 1968 to 2022,the changes in annual runoff showed a significant increasing trend in the upper reaches of the Heihe River,with the annual runoff in the Babaohe,the Yeniugou,the interval mainstream,and the whole area increasing at the rate of 0.29,0.69,0.39,and 1.36 × 108 m3/decade,respectively.The contribution rates of the Babaohe,the Yeniugou,and the interval mainstream to watershed runoff were 28.11％,46.31％,and 25.58％,respectively.The Yeniugou contributed the most to watershed runoff and the interval mainstream the least.The annual runoff in the Babaohe,the Yeniugou,the interval mainstream,and the whole region experienced a sudden change from less rate to more rate in 2002,2006,1979,and 2002 during the study period.Compared to the annual runoff before the mutation change,the mean annual runoff after the mutation change increased by 41.76％,29.78％,67.49％,and 29.53％,respectively.The interannual variation of runoff in the Yeniugou was larger than that in the year before the mutation,and the interannual difference of annual runoff in other areas was smaller.The contribution rates of precipitation to runoff change in the Babaohe,the Yeniugou,and the whole area were 63.89％,55.22％,and 53.89％,respectively,and the contribution of human factors to runoff variation in the Babaohe,the Yeniugou.and the whole area were 36.11％,44.78％,and 46.51％,respectively.[Conclusion]The annual runoff showed a significant increasing trend under the background of climate change and precipitation was the main reason for runoff change in the upper reaches of the Heihe River.关键词
径流量突变/归因分析/黑河上游Key words
runoff mutation/attribution analysis/the upper reaches of Heihe River分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
宋爱英,高秉俊,贺彦..变化环境下黑河上游径流演变规律分析[J].水土保持研究,2025,32(2):61-71,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U22A20564) （U22A20564）
甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广计划项目(22GSLK068) （22GSLK068）
甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广计划项目(22GSLK064) （22GSLK064）
