变化环境下黑河上游径流演变规律分析OA北大核心
Runoff evolution pattern under the changing environment in the upper reaches of Heihe River
[目的]河川径流是西北干旱区重要的水资源,辨析其变化特征及影响因素对于认识气候变化背景下的河流水文变化规律具有重要意义.[方法]以黑河上游为研究区域,根据水文站所控制的流域对黑河上游进行分区,基于黑河上游各水文站径流、降水等数据,结合累积距平、Mann-Kendall检验、双累积曲线等方法,探讨气候变化背景下径流演变规律.[结果]1968-2022年黑河上游各分区年径流量变化均呈显著增加趋势,八宝河、野牛沟、区间干流和黑河上游年径流量分别以0.29亿m3/10 a,0.69亿m3/10 a,0.39亿m3/10 a,1.36亿m3/10 a的速率增加,八宝河、野牛沟、区间干流对于黑河上游流域径流量的贡献率分别为28.11％,46.31％,25.58％,野牛沟对流域径流量贡献率最大,区间干流最小;八宝河、野牛沟、区间干流和黑河上游的年径流量分别在2002年、2006年、1979年和2002年发生了由少到多的突变,年径流量平均值突变后较突变前分别增加41.76％,29.78％,67.49％和29.53％,区间干流突变后较突变前年径流量年际变化大,其他各区年径流量年际差异性变小;降水和人类活动对八宝河流域径流变化的贡献率分别为63.89％和36.11％,对野牛沟流域径流变化的贡献率分别为55.22％和44.78％,对黑河上游径流量变化的贡献率分别为53.89％和46.51％.[结论]整体来说,气候变化背景下黑河上游的年径流量呈显著增加趋势,降水是径流变化的主要原因.
[Objective]Runoff is an important water resource in the arid area of northwest China.The aims of this study are to analyze changing characteristics of runoff and influencing factors,and to understand the pattern of river hydrological change under the background of climate change.[Methods]The upper reaches of the Heihe River was taken as the research area.The upper reaches of the Heihe River was mainly zoned primarily based on the watershed controlled by hydrological stations.Based on the runoff and precipitation of each hydrological station in the upper reaches of the Heihe River,and a variety of methods of the cumulative anomaly,Mann-Kendall test,and double cumulative curve,the evolution pattern of runoff under the background of climate change was discussed.[Results]From 1968 to 2022,the changes in annual runoff showed a significant increasing trend in the upper reaches of the Heihe River,with the annual runoff in the Babaohe,the Yeniugou,the interval mainstream,and the whole area increasing at the rate of 0.29,0.69,0.39,and 1.36 × 108 m3/decade,respectively.The contribution rates of the Babaohe,the Yeniugou,and the interval mainstream to watershed runoff were 28.11％,46.31％,and 25.58％,respectively.The Yeniugou contributed the most to watershed runoff and the interval mainstream the least.The annual runoff in the Babaohe,the Yeniugou,the interval mainstream,and the whole region experienced a sudden change from less rate to more rate in 2002,2006,1979,and 2002 during the study period.Compared to the annual runoff before the mutation change,the mean annual runoff after the mutation change increased by 41.76％,29.78％,67.49％,and 29.53％,respectively.The interannual variation of runoff in the Yeniugou was larger than that in the year before the mutation,and the interannual difference of annual runoff in other areas was smaller.The contribution rates of precipitation to runoff change in the Babaohe,the Yeniugou,and the whole area were 63.89％,55.22％,and 53.89％,respectively,and the contribution of human factors to runoff variation in the Babaohe,the Yeniugou.and the whole area were 36.11％,44.78％,and 46.51％,respectively.[Conclusion]The annual runoff showed a significant increasing trend under the background of climate change and precipitation was the main reason for runoff change in the upper reaches of the Heihe River.
宋爱英;高秉俊;贺彦
甘肃省张掖水文水资源勘测中心,甘肃张掖 734000
水利科学
径流量突变归因分析黑河上游
runoff mutationattribution analysisthe upper reaches of Heihe River
《水土保持研究》 2025 (002)
61-71 / 11
国家自然科学基金项目(U22A20564);甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广计划项目(22GSLK068);甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广计划项目(22GSLK064)
评论