大庆石油地质与开发2025，Vol.44Issue(1)：64-70,7.DOI:10.19597/J.ISSN.1000-3754.202308009
产能到位率概念深化及在大庆油田产量预测中的应用
Concept deepening of productivity implementation rate and its application in production prediction of Daqing Oilfield
摘要
Abstract
After years of deep development in Daqing Oilfield,geological and surface conditions of productivity con-struction objects are continuously deteriorating.There are significant differences between planned productivity and actually constructed productivity due to factors such as plan issuance time,geological understanding and plan ad-justment.Traditional productivity implementation rate indexes have significant changes,and historical laws lost their reference value and cannot meet production prediction needs in complex and ever-changing situations.By ana-lyzing change laws of classified productivity indexes in recent years and combining with actual needs of oil develop-ment planning,planned productivity and actually constructed productivity are used respectively as denominators to deepen connotation of productivity implementation rate at different stages of planning,and concepts of planned pro-ductivity implementation rate and constructed productivity implementation rate are innovatively proposed.The re-sults show that,in planning stage at the beginning of the year and production allocation stage at the end of the year,using planned productivity implementation rate and constructed productivity implementation rate indexes to predict the second year oil production of newly constructed productivity gets prediction coincidence rate of>95%,which ef-fectively guides oil production prediction of newly constructed productivity in the second year.The research pro-vides important reference for optimization of annual productivity construction planning,and provides important ba-sis for accurate estimation of annual and medium-long term production.关键词
产能到位率/产能建设/开发规划/产油量/产量预测Key words
productivity implementation rate/productivity construction/development planning/oil production/production prediction分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
赵云飞,桂东旭,王刚,王福林,刘亚坤,王志新,赵玉双..产能到位率概念深化及在大庆油田产量预测中的应用[J].大庆石油地质与开发,2025,44(1):64-70,7.基金项目
中国石油天然气集团有限公司"十三五"科技开发基金项目"高-特高含水油田改善水驱效果关键技术"(2019B-1209). （2019B-1209）
