电力需求侧管理2025，Vol.27Issue(1)：59-66,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2025.01.010
含新能源电力系统的风险调度策略比对与影响分析
Comparison and impact analysis of risk dispatch strategies of new power system
摘要
Abstract
Comparison and impact analysis of different risk dispatch strategies of new power system can help dispatchers get more de-tailed operation information,so as to promote their practical skills when making decisions about risk dispatch strategies.First,Copula theo-ry is used to build the probabilistic distribution of forecast error given a specified forecast value,and multiple scenarios can be obtained by Monte-Carlo sampling.Second,three different risk dispatch strategies are built and compared,which are two-stage stochastic optimization modelling,chance-constrained approach and deterministic models,and then derives and analyses day-ahead electricity prices based on La-grange multiplier method.Last,the example analysis shows that the results of other two models can be covered by setting different confi-dence levels in chance-constrained approach.The two-stage stochastic optimization model is rather conservative,while the deterministic model is rather aggressive.It also shows that it is prone to curtail new energy power during low-load periods in a high proportion new ener-gy power system.关键词
风险调度/备用/两阶段随机规划模型/机会约束模型/置信度Key words
risk dispatch/reserve/two-stage stochastic optimization modelling/chance-constrained approach/confidence分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
李宝聚,辛茹,付小标,侯嘉琪,赖晓文,孙勇,王志伟,王尧..含新能源电力系统的风险调度策略比对与影响分析[J].电力需求侧管理,2025,27(1):59-66,8.基金项目
国家电网有限公司科技项目(B32342210004). （B32342210004）
