防灾减灾工程学报2024，Vol.44Issue(6)：1457-1464,8.DOI:10.13409/j.cnki.jdpme.20230805002
实时断层破裂尺度估计方法
Real-Time Fault Rupture Scale Estimation Method-A Case Study of the 2016 MW 7.0 Kumamoto Earthquake
摘要
Abstract
Real-time estimation of earthquake source parameters combined with ground motion predic-tion equations for ground motion field prediction is the most commonly used and most time-efficient method in earthquake early warning systems.For medium to large earthquakes,obtaining accurate source parameters(magnitude,fault length,fault strike,and the proportion of unilateral or bilateral rupture)is a crucial factor affecting the effectiveness of this method,due to the influence of finite fault effect.A real-time fault rupture scale estimation method for large earthquakes was introduced,includ-ing the rupture direction and rupture length of the main fault,which can be used for real-time ground motion prediction and near-real-time seismic influence field mapping.The optimal line source model was determined by minimizing the error function between the observed ground motion parameters and the theoretical predicted values incorporating fault model parameters.By real-time tracking of fault rup-ture and correcting the source model,the underestimation of near-fault regions by traditional point source models during large earthquakes could be significantly improved.Furthermore,the introduc-tion of the Akaike Information Criterion could automatically determine when to use the line source model,so as to predict the ground motion field more accurately.As a supplement to traditional early warning methods for large earthquakes,this method not only maintained the timeliness but also im-proved the prediction accuracy.The method was tested in the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto earthquake.The results showed that at approximately 13 seconds,the angle of the fault model began to converge and adding the line source model after 18 seconds significantly improved the prediction accuracy.This method can rapidly and accurately estimate the magnitude and fault rupture parameters of the earth-quake and demonstrates good stability.关键词
地震预警/地震动预测方程/破裂尺度估计/断层距Key words
earthquake early warning/ground motion prediction equation/rupture scale estimation/fault distance分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
肖莹,卢建旗,李山有,赵晏..实时断层破裂尺度估计方法[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2024,44(6):1457-1464,8.基金项目
中国地震局工程力学研究所基本科研业务费专项资助项目(2018B02)、国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1504004)、国家自然科学基金(U2039209)资助 （2018B02）
